Game Thread One Night Ultimate Werewolf XV

There are two scenarios here:
I'm the witch, Malus is lying.
Malus is the witch, i'm lying.

Then there is the potential we are both lying. This would mean the witch would be in the center, along with the robber.
In this scenarios, if LP was the dream wolf, then he still is.

If i'm the witch: Tanner, robber and mystic or minion are in the center. This means that LP could still be the dream wolf, but stu would be a dream wolf, too.
if i'm the witch and Faddy is not the troublemaker: LP is the dream wolf. robber, tanner and troublemaker are in the center.

If malus is the witch: robber, dream wolf and (tanner or minion) are in the center. This means that stu would be the dream wolf.
if malus is the witch and Faddy is not the troublemaker: Faddy could be the mystic wolf, LP is the minion, and the dream wolf is in the center.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
What about my role? It might not have changed anyone else's cards, but it could - and did - change mine. At the point Faddy claimed, I hadn't claimed PI yet, so he wouldn't have known if the as-yet-unknown PI had added another anti-village role into the mix. I know it's not quite the same angle as you were going for, but it does stand to reason that Wolf!Faddy would have had to consider the possibility of an unknown team-mate.

I did account for that when incriminating myself.

i would have been the mystic wolf and chose you to peak. I push you a bit at the start, then I know when you didn't claim that you hit a wolf. The other completely sketchy thing I did was wait until you went to bed to claim. That means Stuart claims first, then if he feels legit (could still be tanner) it is safe to confirm my swap of you and stuart.

Still not me though.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
There are two scenarios here:
I'm the witch, Malus is lying.
Malus is the witch, i'm lying.

Then there is the potential we are both lying. This would mean the witch would be in the center, along with the robber.
In this scenarios, if LP was the dream wolf, then he still is.

If i'm the witch: Tanner, robber and mystic or minion are in the center. This means that LP could still be the dream wolf, but stu would be a dream wolf, too.
if i'm the witch and Faddy is not the troublemaker: LP is the dream wolf. robber, tanner and troublemaker are in the center.

If malus is the witch: robber, dream wolf and (tanner or minion) are in the center. This means that stu would be the dream wolf.
if malus is the witch and Faddy is not the troublemaker: Faddy could be the mystic wolf, LP is the minion, and the dream wolf is in the center.

Or both of Tearable and Malus are lying.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
In the same idea that I am lying, there is also the chance that Turmoil, chuggs or Ynnek is lying about their role and they are wolf who got lucky in claiming the unknown centre role.
 
my outlook is that we assume both Malus and I are the liars.
Even if faddy is or isn’t the troublemaker, that means LP would still be the dream Wolf
 
My final word before I head to work:

When Faddy says to lunch Stu, he’s saying that there is still a witch out there that could have changed LP’s role.

That’s literally the only other role switcher on the table if both malus and I are lying.

Otherwise, this decision is very easy: LP never got his role switched by anyone and he’s still the dream Wolf.

Orrrr the witch is in the center and LP is still the dream Wolf since no else targeted him considering both malus and I are lying.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
It’s ridiculous. One of us is the witch and one of us is scum.

But faddy said that we shouldn’t regard the witches because one of us is lying.

So I’m playing his game

From your perspective I know why you want to lynch LP. From mine it should definitely be Stuart.

I think I am far more credible than you and that town should listen to me.
 

Franconp

Frank
you think he is more likely to be a liar than me?

I think both of you could be liars. That's why I want to lynch LP.

This means you believe that I’m the witch

Between you and Malus? Yes.

I'm trying to parse why here...

I mean Alexem's post way above pretty much states that I must be wolf.

That is if we believe Faddy and I find weird that Faddy, who said that people should lie and that he created a web of lies in a previous game so noone could outmanuvre him, is not lying now. Even when he is claiming troublemaker, the best role to lie about his action's.

He also said in post #153 that he believed Malus over Tearable but then changed his mind in the post #185.

So, I'm not trusting Faddy too much right now. But I don't need try to deal with that now.

I believe that Alexem is telling the truth. And Malus Is obviously lying so LP seems like the easier choice to me. And LP not claiming is suspicious.

What card number did you select from the center?

Not 3.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
I think both of you could be liars. That's why I want to lynch LP.



Between you and Malus? Yes.



That is if we believe Faddy and I find weird that Faddy, who said that people should lie and that he created a web of lies in a previous game so noone could outmanuvre him, is not lying now. Even when he is claiming troublemaker, the best role to lie about his action's.

He also said in post #153 that he believed Malus over Tearable but then changed his mind in the post #185.

So, I'm not trusting Faddy too much right now. But I don't need try to deal with that now.

I believe that Alexem is telling the truth. And Malus Is obviously lying so LP seems like the easier choice to me. And LP not claiming is suspicious.



Not 3.

Why is Malus obviously lying? I don't understand how you can come to this conclusion? And how does that automatically mean you should believe Tearable?

My progression is that I thought Tearable got his claim in earlier and Malus counterclaimed him. I don't see why malus would do that in the situation we were in because it didn't change anything, Stuart was still going to be the lynch. So malus was more believable to me.

Tearable is making some sense but I get the impression he had his claim worked out beforehand and breadcrumbed heavily so he wasn't in a position to do anything about me switching Alexem and therefore outing Stuart as wolf.

I don't know if malus has been honest though. Protecting LP seems like a very level 1 wolf move. But if he is telling the truth the plan for the wolves is always to push that LP is the safest lynch because he is now minion. That seems very risky to me because I am not sure on Tearable and BOTH could be lying.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Malus smells like a minion.

how so?

When Faddy clears up his switch we know one wolf anyway since it's either Alexem or Stuart, unless we want to entertain the possibility that Faddy is a wolf or Alexem is a Tanner, but I doubt either of those possibilities.

Malus claimed after Alexem out Stuart so he already knows it doesn't make a difference.

That is why he was more believable to me. Where as Tearable is pushing for LP which wins him the game as wolf.
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
tbh I think Faddy is more likely pulling off a sicknasty uberploy than it's likely that TP is lying
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
tbh I think Faddy is more likely pulling off a sicknasty uberploy than it's likely that TP is lying

I know this is wifom but why would I lay out my own amazing plan?

Who is putting together all my interactions with Alexem make me an ideal candidate for mystic wolf. I am an un cc'd role. I have no need to do that.

There is a good chance we are both telling the truth but I think TP is playing towards lynching LP to win and that is more likely than any bizarre gambit than I can come up with.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
I just can't think of any good reason for Faddy to lie - as far as I'm concerned, the switch claim washes. Between that and what I know from my night command, I know that my card changed from PI to Wolf, then went over to Stuart. That's it - Faddy put what I know to be a Wolf card in Stuart's hand, so what may or may not have happened to LP is irrelevant.

The only other outcome that I can think of is that by some freak circumstance, Sparks and Stuart are in cahoots and the Mason cards have always been in the middle. Given the permutations, I don't think that's possible - and even if it is, the only one that would backfire on if we were to vote for Stuart would be me if he got my Wolf card and I got another Wolf card in return. In that situation, the rest of the villagers would be unaffected, so it's a risk I'm willing to take.
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
to be clear, I think the most likely scenario is that Malus is lying because he's Minion/MWolf, and LP+Stu are DWolves, and my previous post was referring to what are imo both edge case scenarios
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
if TP is lying it opens up the possibility of a Tanner, but since there doesn't seem to be any Tanner in the works, it'd be a helluva lucky guess for TP to guess that a Tanner was in the middle

the rules state that Tanner and Woofs can't joint win under a solo Tanner lynch, which rules out "Woof TP fakes Witch to cover for Tanner to joint win with Tanner"
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
if TP is lying it opens up the possibility of a Tanner, but since there doesn't seem to be any Tanner in the works, it'd be a helluva lucky guess for TP to guess that a Tanner was in the middle

the rules state that Tanner and Woofs can't joint win under a solo Tanner lynch, which rules out "Woof TP fakes Witch to cover for Tanner to joint win with Tanner"

unless TP is the tanner and wanted to get countered claimed.

Which is why we should be avoiding the entire mess of witches, minions, tanners and just go with me telling the truth and we have Stuart as 100% wolf
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
if TP is Tanner he's a really shitty Tanner

If he is the Tanner there isn't a lot he could do with the way the game unfolded though. He sets up breadcrumbs to get counter claimed and throw into disarray what cards are in the middle. There is the possibility minion and mystic wolf are in the middle so there is no one else out there trying to make the game a mess.
 
I’m on my break and I had to respond to this
Which is why we should be avoiding the entire mess of witches, minions, tanners and just go with me telling the truth and we have Stuart as 100% wolf

Saying that we shouldn’t find out where tf the witch is is one of the craziest thing I’ve ever heard.
The witch is one of the most powerful roles in the game that has the ability to see a role in the center and switch it out with any player’s role they choose .


Whether I’m the witch, malus is the witch, LP is the witch, or if the witch is in the center, saying you should disregard that role is ridiculous
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
If he is the Tanner there isn't a lot he could do with the way the game unfolded though. He sets up breadcrumbs to get counter claimed and throw into disarray what cards are in the middle. There is the possibility minion and mystic wolf are in the middle so there is no one else out there trying to make the game a mess.
yeah, which means his best course of action is to shut up and hope Malus can make a convincing case. Continuing to post doesn't do anything for Tanner!TP

@malus why'd you pick LP to Witch
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
yeah, which means his best course of action is to shut up and hope Malus can make a convincing case. Continuing to post doesn't do anything for Tanner!TP

@malus why'd you pick LP to Witch

Not posting doesn't help him either.

He was trying to get LP to claim a role, despite LP already being confirmed as Dream Wolf.
 

malus

#1 official chartmaker
yeah, which means his best course of action is to shut up and hope Malus can make a convincing case. Continuing to post doesn't do anything for Tanner!TP

@malus why'd you pick LP to Witch
I more or less picked randomly.

Anyway it seems we have all the information we are likely to get. Since it's unlikely for TP to be the Tanner I'm pretty sure he's the Mystic Wolf, which means Faddy tells the truth and Stuart is the other Wolf. Just to not fall into a Tanner trap I think it's better to vote Stu.
 

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
Why? Explain why you believe Tearable over Malus?

Or why you don't believe me?

I’ve played with scum Malus a lot and this feels like a Malus Hail Mary if I’m being honest. I’m more on the fence with you, but Malus being all “We should vote Stu.” is just giving me pause about that.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
I’ve played with scum Malus a lot and this feels like a Malus Hail Mary if I’m being honest. I’m more on the fence with you, but Malus being all “We should vote Stu.” is just giving me pause about that.

But even if Malus is scummy you need to think I am scum with him for Stuart to be the wrong choice.

Why do you think Tearable is town? I think the way he crumbed his role was pretty scummy.
 
L9pGQyF.jpg
 

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
But even if Malus is scummy you need to think I am scum with him for Stuart to be the wrong choice.

Why do you think Tearable is town? I think the way he crumbed his role was pretty scummy.

Okay, hold on a sec. I'm going to do a quick reread of the game and I'll get back to you in about 5-6 business hours
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
To be quite frank, arguments over Witches are essentially a moot point right now. Neither Tearable nor malus have claimed to have targeted myself or Stuart, so all that matters is that Faddy moved the Wolf card that I copied from LP over to Stuart. If malus gave LP a minion card, so what? That would have been after I copied his Dream Wolf card. As for Tearable giving Fran the Tanner card, that would just mean that it's gone from the middle to Fran to the middle again.
 
To be quite frank, arguments over Witches are essentially a moot point right now. Neither Tearable nor malus have claimed to have targeted myself or Stuart, so all that matters is that Faddy moved the Wolf card that I copied from LP over to Stuart. If malus gave LP a minion card, so what? That would have been after I copied his Dream Wolf card. As for Tearable giving Fran the Tanner card, that would just mean that it's gone from the middle to Fran to the middle again.
Alexander has definitely realized that if Faddy isn’t the troublemaker, he’s still the wolf.

You can tell by how much he wants Stu gone
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
That's all it comes down to - did Faddy switch me and Stuart or not? If he did, Stuart's the Wolf. If not, I am. So far, Faddy's not been counter-claimed, so his claim has been accepted, but if the Troublemaker is untouched in the middle, that would change things. This is what needs to be worked out, not who's the witch.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
Alexander has definitely realized that if Faddy isn’t the troublemaker, he’s still the wolf.
Ah, I get what you're driving at - if we don't know if Faddy's claim is true, we can't be certain if Stuart's got my card. OK, that's a fair point. As far as I'm concerned, I have no way of knowing right now who I'm aligned with, hence why I've been inclined to accept Faddy's claim. I still see no reason not to from what's come up so far, but I'll accept that the certainty on Stuart holding that copied card depends on the veracity of Faddy's claim.
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
Witch is relevant if Faddy is lying, which is unlikely but plausible

LP is a woof/minion, one claimed witch is either woof or minion. That leaves the other woof-aligned card unaccounted for, which could be in the middle, could be turmoil or ynnek getting lucky with a fakeclaim, or could be Faddy. There's no other plausible hiding place for that card as it stands, which means there's around a 25% chance of Faddy lying - he's probably truthful, but there exists a plausible scenario in which he isn't
 
Are you going by what Stu is saying?

You're right, it would. Guess where this is going?

My starting card was the Paranormal Investigator. I chose to investigate LP (gotta get some information out of him somehow) and Stuart (as I always get nervous about him being a town leader). So, two hours before the day started, what did I find? LP is the Dream Wolf and I'd just copied him.
DNg_DTRUQAAu7yU.jpg

So, finding myself with a red check that also red checked me and a safe claim that I couldn't verifiy, my plan was to come back in the morning and fake-check a couple of trusted claims. But what's this?

All being well and good, then, that means I'm the Mason and Stuart's now a woofer, with LP presumably still being the dreaming doggo. Faddy, you've just gone from a Troublemaker to a two-in-one-night cop. Congratulations!

And going by wake-up order in the game posts at the start of the thread. PI goes early on resulting in LP being seen as a wolf and then Faddy swapped me and Alexem who by this point had become a werewolf (as seen in the wake-up order) so I am not a wolf and Alexem is your new best friend.
 
Apo is right.
And considering everything, especially considering @Lone_Prodigy has been in this thread twice after everyone has claimed, and still hasn’t claimed...

I’m going to vote for LP unless some new information surfaces
 
Unless there is some other fuckery about, I think it's a clear choice:

Believe Faddy: Vote me
Don't Believe Faddy: Vote Alexem
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
I guess it's possible Chugg is Mystic Wolf who checked Fran and then faked Robber, so reduce that percentage to 20%
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Witch is relevant if Faddy is lying, which is unlikely but plausible

LP is a woof/minion, one claimed witch is either woof or minion. That leaves the other woof-aligned card unaccounted for, which could be in the middle, could be turmoil or ynnek getting lucky with a fakeclaim, or could be Faddy. There's no other plausible hiding place for that card as it stands, which means there's around a 25% chance of Faddy lying - he's probably truthful, but there exists a plausible scenario in which he isn't

If you want to talk about the chances of me lying. I was the 4th or 5th person to claim (depending on how you feel about Tearable softing witch)

There were a lot of people left who could have been the real troublemaker. And 2/3rds of the centre cards had already been claimed. Robber by Chuggs/Fran claims and Tanner by Tearable. So I got super lucky if I am a wolf and not the troublemaker.
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
If you want to talk about the chances of me lying. I was the 4th or 5th person to claim (depending on how you feel about Tearable softing witch)

There were a lot of people left who could have been the real troublemaker. And 2/3rds of the centre cards had already been claimed. Robber by Chuggs/Fran claims and Tanner by Tearable. So I got super lucky if I am a wolf and not the troublemaker.
if the third scum card isn't in the center, someone had to get lucky with a fakeclaim. that someone could or could not be you.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
if the third scum card isn't in the center, someone had to get lucky with a fakeclaim. that someone could or could not be you.

But I think if there aren't two scum cards in the middle then it is most likely Turmoil who is a wolf and waited to see what the safe claim was.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
I'll say this for Faddy - if he's on the wolf team, he wouldn't have known about me until I claimed, which came after his claim. If he's the Mystic Wolf, he could only have seen my role if he checked me, and even then he'd have seen me as a PI - he'd have known LP washis team-mate, but he'd have had no idea that I voted for him. If he's the Minion somehow, he wouldn't have seen me. This does suggest that I was an arbitrary choice for targeting - even as a fake claim - unless he knew that Stuart was on his side and wanted to shift the blame to me. Seeing as Sparks has verified Stuart's claim of starting as a Mason, that wouldn't work out.

As for voting for LP, that would depend on whether or not we can disprove beyond all doubt that he could be the Minion. If there's no chance of that then great - he should still be the Dream Wolf. If there is a possibility of him being a Minion, though, then voting for him would risk a mis-hit.

Right, I really need to get some sleep now.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
If he's the Mystic Wolf, he could only have seen my role if he checked me, and even then he'd have seen me as a PI - he'd have known LP washis team-mate, but he'd have had no idea that I voted for him.
If I checked LP, rather. You can tell I need to get to bed.
 

Franconp

Frank
Why is Malus obviously lying? I don't understand how you can come to this conclusion? And how does that automatically mean you should believe Tearable?

Because Tearable claimed first, he linked his action to a confirmed townie and gave his action quickly. If Tearable were lying and he claimed that he swapped the same card that I chose I couldn't be a seer now and he would have been outed. If he was lying he had a 33% chance of screwing up that claim.

Instead Malus counterclaimed Tearable, linked his action with an outed wolf, said that he saw the same card that Tearable claimed before (and that it wasn't counterclaimed) and said that the wolf is now a minion which is a role town wouldn't vote and that won't be counterclaimed. And now LP seems happy to play the minion as he is trying to get himself lynched.

So the options are:

- Trust Faddy: vote for Stuart
- Not trust Faddy: vote Alexem
- Don't care what Faddy did: vote LP

Voting LP is the easier vote. It doesn't matter if Faddy is lying or not. LP is the easier choice here.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
ecause Tearable claimed first, he linked his action to a confirmed townie and gave his action quickly. If Tearable were lying and he claimed that he swapped the same card that I chose I couldn't be a seer now and he would have been outed. If he was lying he had a 33% chance of screwing up that claim.

Let me knock this line of thinking. He said he gave you the Tanner card. If he is lying as wolf the real Tanner isn't going to counter claim him.

Or he is the Tanner and wanted to be counterclaimed.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Instead Malus counterclaimed Tearable, linked his action with an outed wolf, said that he saw the same card that Tearable claimed before (and that it wasn't counterclaimed) and said that the wolf is now a minion which is a role town wouldn't vote and that won't be counterclaimed. And now LP seems happy to play the minion as he is trying to get himself lynched.

When Malus claimed he knew Stuart was outed as a wolf. Look at his posts. He knew his claim didn't really matter. Why even counterclaim Tearable like that. Why not counterclaim me or Alexem?

So the options are:

- Trust Faddy: vote for Stuart
- Not trust Faddy: vote Alexem
- Don't care what Faddy did: vote LP

You lose voting LP if Tearable is lying. It is easier to believe the person who hasn't been counterclaimed.
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
Let me knock this line of thinking. He said he gave you the Tanner card. If he is lying as wolf the real Tanner isn't going to counter claim him.

Or he is the Tanner and wanted to be counterclaimed.
if you think there's a Tanner in play, who do you think it is?
 

Franconp

Frank
Let me knock this line of thinking. He said he gave you the Tanner card. If he is lying as wolf the real Tanner isn't going to counter claim him.

Or he is the Tanner and wanted to be counterclaimed.

But he took a risk claiming what card he saw. If he claimed the same card as me I couldn't be a seer now. He had a 33% chance of fucking up his claim.

His claim doesn't make sense as wolf: too risky. Doesn't make sense as minion: he is not protecting wolves or incriminating another player. Doesn't make sense as Tanner: even if counterclaimed we wouldn't vote for him as that play doesn't make sense as wolf.

When Malus claimed he knew Stuart was outed as a wolf. Look at his posts. He knew his claim didn't really matter. Why even counterclaim Tearable like that. Why not counterclaim me or Alexem?

Because you could be the Mystic wolf? If you are Mystic wolf Malus knows that you are lying and he will not counterclaim you because that would put you in danger and that doesn't protect LP. He also know that you never switched the targets so people voting for Stuart is a good result for him so no need to counterclaim Alexem. His best option would be to protect LP and the best bet is counterclaiming Tearable.
 

Dr. Worm

Has a PHD in Worms
Because Tearable claimed first, he linked his action to a confirmed townie and gave his action quickly. If Tearable were lying and he claimed that he swapped the same card that I chose I couldn't be a seer now and he would have been outed. If he was lying he had a 33% chance of screwing up that claim.

Instead Malus counterclaimed Tearable, linked his action with an outed wolf, said that he saw the same card that Tearable claimed before (and that it wasn't counterclaimed) and said that the wolf is now a minion which is a role town wouldn't vote and that won't be counterclaimed. And now LP seems happy to play the minion as he is trying to get himself lynched.

So the options are:

- Trust Faddy: vote for Stuart
- Not trust Faddy: vote Alexem
- Don't care what Faddy did: vote LP

Voting LP is the easier vote. It doesn't matter if Faddy is lying or not. LP is the easier choice here.
other thing that stands out to me is that Malus responded to my offhand remark about LP but not anything about TP sorting Witch, which doesn't make sense if Malus knows he's Witch

Occam's Razor says TP had no master plan in mind and played straight, Malus had no master plan in mind and stalled until he could fakeclaim
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
But he took a risk claiming what card he saw. If he claimed the same card as me I couldn't be a seer now. He had a 33% chance of fucking up his claim.

His claim doesn't make sense as wolf: too risky. Doesn't make sense as minion: he is not protecting wolves or incriminating another player. Doesn't make sense as Tanner: even if counterclaimed we wouldn't vote for him as that play doesn't make sense as wolf.



Because you could be the Mystic wolf? If you are Mystic wolf Malus knows that you are lying and he will not counterclaim you because that would put you in danger and that doesn't protect LP. He also know that you never switched the targets so people voting for Stuart is a good result for him so no need to counterclaim Alexem. His best option would be to protect LP and the best bet is counterclaiming Tearable.

Read what you are saying here. Tearable's play was too risky because he had a 1/3 chance of being counterclaimed. But Malus has 100% chance of being counterclaimed because he claimed a role that was already claimed.

It does help that I know I am not the mystic wolf. I think your logic is good here but it doesn't reflect the game. I took an even greater risk than Tearable with my claim. Even if I knew Alexem was the PI, there is no way I could know for sure he ran into a wolf.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Malus was 10th to claim. There are 12 of us. 11 have claimed so far.

I'm not saying you are definitely a wolf or even that you are definitely more likely to be lying than malus. It is that you are more likely to be lying than I am.
 
Read what you are saying here. Tearable's play was too risky because he had a 1/3 chance of being counterclaimed. But Malus has 100% chance of being counterclaimed because he claimed a role that was already claimed.
100% risky?
You're literally telling everyone to disregard the witches.

if anything, it's helping you get what you want so it wasn't risky at all

btw can you answer my question plz? where do you think the witch role is?
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
@Lone_Prodigy Anything to add to the current conversation? Ya know, since the conversation is partly revolving around us.

Do you want to know what you should do Stuart? You should be voting for L_P on the basis that you can get him lynched with the most votes.

He might be a wolf with you and you lose. (me and tearable are telling the truth)

He might be minion and you are wolf giving you the win. (me and malus are telling the truth)
You might not be a wolf and he is also giving you the win. (I'm lying and therefore malus is most likely lying too)


That gives you some hedging and most likely some town are going to vote there.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
100% risky?
You're literally telling everyone to disregard the witches.

if anything, it's helping you get what you want so it wasn't risky at all

btw can you answer my question plz? where do you think the witch role is?

Yeah I don't completely care who the witches are and what they did. And whether L_P is minion or not because I know 100% that Stuart is a wolf.

Who do I think is the witch? I'm probably 75% that it is you. But I have more than enough doubt to push for my 100% wolf in Stuart.
 
You're not going to get people to vote with you just by saying you're 100% right and not caring where the important swapping roles are.
That doesn't help
 

Franconp

Frank
Yeah I don't completely care who the witches are and what they did. And whether L_P is minion or not because I know 100% that Stuart is a wolf.

Who do I think is the witch? I'm probably 75% that it is you. But I have more than enough doubt to push for my 100% wolf in Stuart.

How do you know that Stuart is 100% wolf?
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Faddy, if you’re telling the truth, Alexem became a wolf because of LP. You switched Stu and Alexem.

LP is still a wolf

Not if Malus is the witch though.

How do you know that Stuart is 100% wolf?

Stuart is confirmed to have held mason with Sparks
If Alexem was tanner, he doesn't win if we lynch now tanner stuart
If Alexem was minion, he doesn't win if we lynch now minion stuart

The only way Alexem wins with a stuart lynch is if Alexem was a wolf. Which he was after investigating L_P.

So since Alexem has absolutely zero reason to lie and I know for certain that I switched him with Stuart, therefore Stuart is 100% a wolf. And Alexem is Mason.
 
Yeah I don't completely care who the witches are and what they did. And whether L_P is minion or not because I know 100% that Stuart is a wolf.

Who do I think is the witch? I'm probably 75% that it is you.

You're really confusing me.
You say you don't care about the witches yet you still consider Malus of being a witch.
You say you're 75% that i'm the witch yet you still consider Malus being the witch in the scenario you believe Stu to be a dream wolf.

This makes no sense
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
You're really confusing me.
You say you don't care about the witches yet you still consider Malus of being a witch.
You say you're 75% that i'm the witch yet you still consider Malus being the witch in the scenario you believe Stu to be a dream wolf.

This makes no sense

How does Stuart's role hinge in any way on you or malus?

You and malus are completely independent of Stuart being a wolf.
 
How does Stuart's role hinge in any way on you or malus?

You and malus are completely independent of Stuart being a wolf.
why would we need to trust you when we only would need to trust alexem?
the less people we have to go through to find the wolves, the better.
stuf is a wolf based off of alexem AND you.
it's unecessary
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
why would we need to trust you when we only would need to trust alexem?
the less people we have to go through to find the wolves, the better.
stuf is a wolf based off of alexem AND you.
it's unecessary

You need to trust that I actually switched Stuart and Alexem.
The only person who doesn't actually need to trust me is Alexem. Whether I am lying or not getting Stuart lynched wins him the game. Because either he is wolf and we lynch a mason -or- he is town and we lynch a wolf.

And I already showed why Alexem's word is not questionable. So it is whether we believe me or people choose between believing you or malus.
 
In order to trust Faddy, we have to trust that LP was at one point the DW.

Every time I tell Faddy that we should go for LP, he says that Malus could be the witch.

But if anyone mentions Malus at all in any probable scenarios as being the witch, you have to plot a scenario where I could be the witch, too.

The reason being is that neither me or Malus are confirmed witches. So, you can’t just use one of them in your scenario and not plot out the other one’s timeline separately, too.


PLOT 1 AKA Faddy’s Story:
Malus is the witch, so LP is no longer the DW and only Stu is the DW.

PLOT 2 Alternate Story:
I’m the witch, LP is still the DW.

PLOT 3 The Center:
The Witch is in the center. LP is still the DW b/c no other roles claimed to have changed his role.


I’m going to bed. This is exhausting.
 
In order to trust Faddy, we have to trust that LP was at one point the DW.

Ignoring Faddy, if we trust Alexem,then we know either he or myself is a wolf now.

The latter is of course if we trust Faddy. If we don't, then vote Alexem.

One of us is the wolf unless there is major fuckery about.

And it looks like LP has checked out of the game entirely based on his... very few posts already.
 
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