Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
FANTO! My boy! Believe in yourself!
Spectator Thread Doctor Who This Ain't - Spectator Thread
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
Sawneeks
little green dog
AB got pirate bae in her lie. he should be in the hero corner.
cabot
Why.
It was before he caught out bae and when I was alive.
turmoil7
Imperial Corps Commander Who Cheers the Army
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
That fucking stack on Zeke, Jesus
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
Town basically had to be in complete unison to combat that shit.
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
rac didn’t vote lol
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
Town is screwed just based on numbers now.
Sawneeks
little green dog
turmoil7
Imperial Corps Commander Who Cheers the Army
Town went from thinking victory was assured to thinking they were already defeated in one phase, they are totally demotivated
+rac left without leaving a vote, blarg's tunnel on ceecee/him begging for being recruited, Punished Fantomas
NKing Brazil destroyed town
+rac left without leaving a vote, blarg's tunnel on ceecee/him begging for being recruited, Punished Fantomas
NKing Brazil destroyed town
Verelios
Were-elios
Town is severely outnumbered at the moment, which makes me more sympathetic. Let's all hope they find a way to turn cult and scum against each other next day.
Unless town had scum's help and somehow got really lucky in finishing the cult before they could recruit anyone, I honestly don't think there ever was a realistic chance of town winning.
I love Bear's games and Bear himself above all, and I had a lot of fun with the game while I was in it, but after leaving and finding out more about the set-up, I felt frustrated at how town was handled. It feels like a lot of concessions were made to avoid having scum and cult eliminate each other early on, while town was left with very few tools to defend itself. Because of that, I think it'd inevitably end up being scum x cult with town just watching in frustration.
Cult had all of the possible safeguards it can have - two leaders right off the bat, recruits who could recruit, the possibility of recruiting town PRs. The only limitation the faction has in this game - the fact that they get new shots on bastard modifiers - is barely a limitation when you consider that no one else in the game has any way of knowing that those modifiers are harmful before getting a cult leader flip.
Scum, meanwhile, has strength in their numbers. Right off the bat on D1, town had to deal with 8 threats - a number that would almost inevitably rise. A comparison point I used was Buffy, the other similarly-sized game I played in. In that game, there were 23 players in total - 5 scum, 1 neutral survivor, 17 town. This game only has 4 more players than that one, but 3 extra threats to town, plus the unrestricted recruitment system, and a weaker set of town PRs.
Talking to Fand yesterday, we actually arrived at a scenario in which town ends up in MyLo on D7 after getting every single lynch right. And the conditions for that to happen are actually reasonable (only #3 didn't happen in the actual game):
- The day vig shoots town - Very likely considering how frontloaded the use of vig shots is;
- The lynchbomb kills town - Extremely likely considering how scum will know to avoid being hit;
- 4 out of the 6 modifiers chosen are bastard - Cult can silently push in this direction while the rest of the game can't know what's going on behind the curtains;
- Scum only NKs town all the way to N6 - This actually happened, but it's also likely in any scenario; scum will inevitably target "confirmed" townies (doc, cop, masons) and those who are widely townread through their solving in the thread, while the cult not only is able to dodge NKs by playing passively, but are also able pick and choose townies who are also playing like that since there are no restrictions to their recruitment.
If losing is a possibility even for a town that lynches scum every time, then losing is also very likely for a regular town or even a competent one. I actually think that we played very well in this game - we got 3 out of the first 5 lynches right, which isn't common. absolutbro put on the best performance I've ever seen out of a weak cop, going above and beyond and finding two scum when the easiest and reasonable move for him would've been to go 1 for 1 to guarantee turmoil's lynch on D2. And yet it became very clear when Saw flipped that we'd lose.
Even if I'd taken the vig shot item instead of Febe and had used it to shoot Sorian, and then subsequently lynched another scum/cult on D6, town would probably still end up in a position of not being able to afford a mislynch, since they'd still have 5 other scum left in the game to go through and the risk of having the strongest town players recruited.
My takeaway is that I don't envy anyone who has to balance a game with a cult in it :(
I love Bear's games and Bear himself above all, and I had a lot of fun with the game while I was in it, but after leaving and finding out more about the set-up, I felt frustrated at how town was handled. It feels like a lot of concessions were made to avoid having scum and cult eliminate each other early on, while town was left with very few tools to defend itself. Because of that, I think it'd inevitably end up being scum x cult with town just watching in frustration.
Cult had all of the possible safeguards it can have - two leaders right off the bat, recruits who could recruit, the possibility of recruiting town PRs. The only limitation the faction has in this game - the fact that they get new shots on bastard modifiers - is barely a limitation when you consider that no one else in the game has any way of knowing that those modifiers are harmful before getting a cult leader flip.
Scum, meanwhile, has strength in their numbers. Right off the bat on D1, town had to deal with 8 threats - a number that would almost inevitably rise. A comparison point I used was Buffy, the other similarly-sized game I played in. In that game, there were 23 players in total - 5 scum, 1 neutral survivor, 17 town. This game only has 4 more players than that one, but 3 extra threats to town, plus the unrestricted recruitment system, and a weaker set of town PRs.
Talking to Fand yesterday, we actually arrived at a scenario in which town ends up in MyLo on D7 after getting every single lynch right. And the conditions for that to happen are actually reasonable (only #3 didn't happen in the actual game):
- The day vig shoots town - Very likely considering how frontloaded the use of vig shots is;
- The lynchbomb kills town - Extremely likely considering how scum will know to avoid being hit;
- 4 out of the 6 modifiers chosen are bastard - Cult can silently push in this direction while the rest of the game can't know what's going on behind the curtains;
- Scum only NKs town all the way to N6 - This actually happened, but it's also likely in any scenario; scum will inevitably target "confirmed" townies (doc, cop, masons) and those who are widely townread through their solving in the thread, while the cult not only is able to dodge NKs by playing passively, but are also able pick and choose townies who are also playing like that since there are no restrictions to their recruitment.
If losing is a possibility even for a town that lynches scum every time, then losing is also very likely for a regular town or even a competent one. I actually think that we played very well in this game - we got 3 out of the first 5 lynches right, which isn't common. absolutbro put on the best performance I've ever seen out of a weak cop, going above and beyond and finding two scum when the easiest and reasonable move for him would've been to go 1 for 1 to guarantee turmoil's lynch on D2. And yet it became very clear when Saw flipped that we'd lose.
Even if I'd taken the vig shot item instead of Febe and had used it to shoot Sorian, and then subsequently lynched another scum/cult on D6, town would probably still end up in a position of not being able to afford a mislynch, since they'd still have 5 other scum left in the game to go through and the risk of having the strongest town players recruited.
My takeaway is that I don't envy anyone who has to balance a game with a cult in it :(
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
@Brazil all fair criticism that I have to think about further. I do think that the modifiers were a fair restriction to the cult though - only 5/15 of the mods are cult related, and the cult wasn't given a list or a number of them. The cults starts at 2/27 strength, so they are far from able to control the discussion. Part of the cult role in thos game was that they start very weak - and only become strong if they are able to get through the hurdles.
I need to think about town's relative weakness - although there are some mods that were pro-town and haven't been chosen (Bar 2, Disney Princess).
I need to think about town's relative weakness - although there are some mods that were pro-town and haven't been chosen (Bar 2, Disney Princess).
I forget about Disney Princess (what did that do?) but Bar 2 can be both good or bad for town. At least it's a lot more neutral funnily enough, especially if town is smaller than the cult/scum (which at this point it is I think)
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Princess disables scum night kill for the next night.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
As for scum, town had a fairly robust set of protection against them (Doctor, Commuter, Bulletproof, Override against potential turbo) and a backup who could potentiqlly inherit one of those. Town also had a vigilante to counter the bomb, and the scum backup couldn't inherit bomb (this was the redcated part of turmoil's PM).
Town also had a vanilla cop that could catch cult leaders and force them to make a fake claim like Sorian had to, as well as catch scum. Vanilla cop would also get a red check on vanillas that were recruited. Only really weak PR was the post restriction ignorer.
That said on insight, some changes should have been made. Possibly reduce scum from 6 to 5, and reduce modifiers that give cult shots by one as well. I'm not sure if the PR recruitment is an issue - the cult is already chained down by mods, and scum would have night killing PR a priority.
Town also had a vanilla cop that could catch cult leaders and force them to make a fake claim like Sorian had to, as well as catch scum. Vanilla cop would also get a red check on vanillas that were recruited. Only really weak PR was the post restriction ignorer.
That said on insight, some changes should have been made. Possibly reduce scum from 6 to 5, and reduce modifiers that give cult shots by one as well. I'm not sure if the PR recruitment is an issue - the cult is already chained down by mods, and scum would have night killing PR a priority.
turmoil7
Imperial Corps Commander Who Cheers the Army
Madness
They sent the command to kill rac
They sent the command to kill rac
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
*Sorian laughs emoji*
I didn't know that turmoil couldn't inherit the bomb. That actually gives me a weird sense of relief, hahaha.
Regarding the modifier thing, I think having someone with a town role that benefitted from all non-bastard modifiers would've created some organic pushback against the cult. Even though there were only 2 cultists at the start, it was really easy for Sorian to plant the narrative that "bastard modifiers are more likely to have cool and useful twists" because the rest of the game was like, "Sure, why not?". We were so apathetic towards the modifiers thing that I didn't even bother voting at one point - and I had a role that interacted with modifiers.
I think that that's the thing: a late cult reveal is way more likely than an early one. On D1 and D2, through numbers alone, town is more likely to lynch scum before cult, and scum is more likely to shoot town.
And from that point onwards, things start piling up. Town that lynches scum will look through that flip for connections, which increases the chance of more scum lynches (and therefore reduces the chances of a cult lynch). Meanwhile, scum will start targeting standout townies and PRs, while the cult can lay low. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's because of that that I think cults need to be weaker. The numbers already favor their survivability.
At the same time, I get why it's hard to create a faction that can get unlucky and end up wiped off the map early on. But I think that that's the risk that balances out their advantage of being an invisible faction.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
It's announced in the game thread.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
Lmao
turmoil7
Imperial Corps Commander Who Cheers the Army
Don't ruin the fun-.-
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Check scum chat.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
I'm not putting switchers into my games :P
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
Who did cult try to recruit?
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Fantomas. They failed, because sorian was killed - recruitment comes after night kill in order of actions.
Unless this game is bullshit we successfully recruited at least.
Also, stoked I pegged obvious scum like halfway through day 1 if I'm understanding all these vague rumblings correctly just from clicking around spec chat randomly.
GARBAGE
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
Hahahaha. Town! You have a chance again!
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Somehow I feel every faction thinks they were the weakest one.
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
I am not sorry that you did, and I'm taking it to heart
Alexem
Yeah, I'm town
The fiends! Imagine making him face the prospect of not ending the game as confirmed town!
saenima
Not Aeleus
A destiny worse than death.
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
#ConfirmedTown
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
I admit that part was something I shouldn't have overlooked (the commute part) - I should have made it so that you couldn't have done that.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Yeah. That was a fuck-up from my side - although at least he has no way of proving he commuted N2.
Pedro
The Last Airbender is actually a great movie
https://www.outermafia.com/index.php?threads/164/
recruiting normally comes after killing (not only how we view it, but how the mafia scum wiki views it)
recruiting normally comes after killing (not only how we view it, but how the mafia scum wiki views it)
If the kill is ahead of the action in the turn order?
Literally always.
(Kill is just usually the last thing in the order, so it doesn't come up often.)
I thought only Sora could recruit. Bear?
So yeah but let's actually go to the source where you pulled that guide from: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_Action_Resolution
Under the killing section: "Killing doesn't stop the actions of the dead player. (Imagine that all kills happen at the end of the night, and everyone pulls the trigger simultaneously.) This means that kills generally do not affect other actions for the purpose of the Golden Rule. One exception is with combinations like Kill versus Recruit; in this case, the kill prevents the recruitment, but the recruitment does not prevent the kill, so by the Golden Rule the kill happen first and the player flips with (and wins with) their old alignment." There's two things here you have to unpack which I assume is what causes the confusion. The first is that "killing doesn't stop the actions of a dead player" this is what would apply here. I'm the one who was killed, thus my action still resolves, it doesn't cut out just because I died. Just like if a watcher/tracker were in the game as well as an alignment cop. If the watcher/tracker did an action that would get the alignment cops name and scum killed the alignment cop, for t6he purposes of that watcher/tracker, the alignment cop still did his check even though "Inspect" comes after "Kill" in the order of operations.
The second part of what I quoted is a specific example of Kill vs. Recruit in regards to if the recruit was killed, in this specific case, it would apply to Fantomas. He doesn't get recruited and change his wincon if he is killed because he is an invalid target, he no longer exists when I try to go and target him, thus I end up doing no action instead.
All that to say, we can talk in the review thread, no reason to change anything mid-game but I heavily disagree with the choice made and will take it as a trade that I disagreed with the commute issue too.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Anyone in cult can - since they are tied to shots coming from mods.
No, any of us could recruit, we were unsure if any type of tracker or blocker existed and figured I had the least likely chance of being targeted by either because Kyan has all the suspicion, Flux had enough people mentioning that they didn't believe his commuter claim and the only person going after me was Blarg. So unless the person wanting to screw things up was exactly Blarg, I figured I was fine.
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
I don’t see one of the lynches not being town. Town would have to be in unison to pull off where they want to move their votes, and even then scum and cult have enough numbers to push someone else into 2nd if they’re scared of dying
I'm too lazy to spoiler tag things so I just won't say names but I will say numbers. There's only two cult members and scum still having 3 left is wild to me, we likely lost with what just happened. Scum should win unless they fumble for absolutely no reason, they should let Fire exit tonight and they run away with it (Fire is telling the truth right?)
Reading back and this post is my personal highlight lol
Lies, I helped town in NX, they fumbled hard at the end and I took the first hammer opportunity I got, scum could have just as easily lost there (though if they had, I would have too since the last scum was a bomb)
I’ve been talking to bear behind the scenes and it’s town who was underpowered for sure. Scum team is too big (by one player) and cult literally only fails if one of the original two is killed very early game. It’s very rare this game is ever in a state where town can win, it’s almost always scum v cult. *queue us getting to the true ending timeline where scum now fumbles everything, my cult goes left field and fucks up our recruitments and Blarg stumbles across the finish line as town golden boy*