Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Because doctor is always Savin themselves night 1, so even nights are best chances.
Pair Thread zippedpinhead & Fantomas Suite
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I do believe that Role Cop/Ninja/Goon is probably the most likely 3-pair configuration for the Scum team.
I think if there is 4 though, the Messenger can fit into that world as well as a somewhat useless role too. Otherwise, if don't flip a full-blown Ninja in this game, I would expect it is the other theory where they had X-Shot Strong and X-Shot Ninja.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
That’s fair, I’m just trying to feel out other options today.
Reki/Xbro still gets us a ton of information about absolutbro and maybe Natiko/monkey teams regardless of alignment.
Reki/Xbro still gets us a ton of information about absolutbro and maybe Natiko/monkey teams regardless of alignment.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Why would they do that?
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Innocent child bomb?
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Oh I get it, case for dr monkey as scum. They flip town, and lays in on them as a last ditch.
60% sure we die tonight.
60% sure we die tonight.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
But whatever, there's the flip.
I think you were right that we had Town/Town here today, because I just do not see the AB/Fat world making sense here with the EoD votes.
I'll try to keep an open mind on it though.
Scum is here:
Monkey
Natiko
FEPs/Stan
SkyChugg
Possibly here, but I doubt it:
AB/Fat
That's my pool of top suspects.
I'll look into them all tonight.
I think you were right that we had Town/Town here today, because I just do not see the AB/Fat world making sense here with the EoD votes.
I'll try to keep an open mind on it though.
Scum is here:
Monkey
Natiko
FEPs/Stan
SkyChugg
Possibly here, but I doubt it:
AB/Fat
That's my pool of top suspects.
I'll look into them all tonight.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I meant this as in the EoD votes on D1.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Yeah, i’ve Self hammered, but never without fighting tooth and nail. It’s typically because i was about to be very busy at day end and wanted the day to end on my terms.
The last three hours have been tough. And I’m pretty sure that most of those last votes are townies.
And the Stu/dr monkey votes on AB team... they read so much of scum “we hiding our votes by not voting town”
The last three hours have been tough. And I’m pretty sure that most of those last votes are townies.
And the Stu/dr monkey votes on AB team... they read so much of scum “we hiding our votes by not voting town”
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I only see us dying tonight if they have no Ninja. Otherwise there are enough people alive that are willing to entertain the idea that we are Scum because we can't "prove" our role like most of the other Town roles could. Which is a terrible argument in my opinion, but whatever.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Monkey, hands down monkey.
Look at how Stu switched to vote for AB. It’s just a bunch of nothing, brought about by monkey asking for another train to start
AND THEN PEOPLE FOLLOWED THEM!!
It’s silly.
Look at how Stu switched to vote for AB. It’s just a bunch of nothing, brought about by monkey asking for another train to start
AND THEN PEOPLE FOLLOWED THEM!!
It’s silly.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Well I guess we know who we are looking st then...
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
We look at Dr monkey, just like everyone else will be doing stuff to
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Yeah, fuck. You're right, those AB votes were trash. Just setting up the next day to be all about them. And Monkey kept trying to fit them as being Scum when the D1 votes make no sense of it. Natiko too.
Fuck!!!!
Sorry, I am just really going to be in a mood if Monkey was Scum this whole time. Fuuuuuuck.
Give me a moment here, I'll look into things more closely here.
I think either Monkey or Natiko have to be our target tonight though for sure.
Fuck!!!!
Sorry, I am just really going to be in a mood if Monkey was Scum this whole time. Fuuuuuuck.
Give me a moment here, I'll look into things more closely here.
I think either Monkey or Natiko have to be our target tonight though for sure.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Ok, so I really want to look at the D1 votes here now. I think this honestly is the key to solving the game.
These have to be Town/Town trains.
I'm going to make a spreadsheet here just to get things in order and so I can chart out my thoughts on this for you in a more readable way.
These have to be Town/Town trains.
I'm going to make a spreadsheet here just to get things in order and so I can chart out my thoughts on this for you in a more readable way.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I’ll try to get my thoughts on day 1 as well.
I’m thinking monkey has been leading us down the primrose path
I’m thinking monkey has been leading us down the primrose path
Fanto
Confirmed Town
So, here is what I am seeing.
First, I went and green checked all the flipped Townies that were on the list, and red checked the known Mafia.
Then, I went and green checked the "These have to be Town here" roles.
I'm not going to highlight Rac/Vincent just because I know you have doubts on that one, so I'll let you try to fit them into a world here just in case I am writing them off too soon.
This is the spreadsheet I have come up with now to examine these votes:
First, the possible AB/Ty Scum world.
If AB/Ty is Scum here, then one way I can maybe see these votes making sense is if their one remaining Scum partner is Monkey/Stu.
Otherwise, their Scum partners either put one or both of their votes onto their partner, AB/Ty. I don't buy that amount of D1 bussing. It only makes sense to me if the Final Scum are AB/Ty and one of SkyChuggs or FEPs/Stan, because only Stan and Chugg put votes onto Ty/AB, their partners went elsewhere. Otherwise a long shot I guess if Natiko/Terra both stacked their votes on their partner and then went after them the next day, and then again today. If 2 of those 3 are Scum and the game doesn't end, I would assume Monkey is the Final Scum with them in that world.
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Next, the AB/Ty Town world.
If AB/Ty is Town here, which makes way too much sense to me for reasons other than just the votes here on D1, and there are 2 Scum pairs left, then my instincts would tell me they are just within the group of Natiko/Terra, FEPs/Stan, SkyChugg. Monkey can maybe fit in here, probably only with Natiko though.
If it's 3 Scum pairs left still... Monkey is in on this for sure, but possibly not with Natiko any more.
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And now more of a summary/TLDR of my thoughts here.
From most likely Scum to least likely Scum in each case:
If AB/Ty is Scum (unlikely scenario):
Sky/Chugg
Monkey/Stu
FEPs/Stan
Natiko/Terra
If AB/Ty is Town (likely scenario):
Natiko/Terra
Monkey/Stu
Sky/Chugg
FEPs/Stan
First, I went and green checked all the flipped Townies that were on the list, and red checked the known Mafia.
Then, I went and green checked the "These have to be Town here" roles.
I'm not going to highlight Rac/Vincent just because I know you have doubts on that one, so I'll let you try to fit them into a world here just in case I am writing them off too soon.
This is the spreadsheet I have come up with now to examine these votes:
First, the possible AB/Ty Scum world.
If AB/Ty is Scum here, then one way I can maybe see these votes making sense is if their one remaining Scum partner is Monkey/Stu.
Otherwise, their Scum partners either put one or both of their votes onto their partner, AB/Ty. I don't buy that amount of D1 bussing. It only makes sense to me if the Final Scum are AB/Ty and one of SkyChuggs or FEPs/Stan, because only Stan and Chugg put votes onto Ty/AB, their partners went elsewhere. Otherwise a long shot I guess if Natiko/Terra both stacked their votes on their partner and then went after them the next day, and then again today. If 2 of those 3 are Scum and the game doesn't end, I would assume Monkey is the Final Scum with them in that world.
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Next, the AB/Ty Town world.
If AB/Ty is Town here, which makes way too much sense to me for reasons other than just the votes here on D1, and there are 2 Scum pairs left, then my instincts would tell me they are just within the group of Natiko/Terra, FEPs/Stan, SkyChugg. Monkey can maybe fit in here, probably only with Natiko though.
If it's 3 Scum pairs left still... Monkey is in on this for sure, but possibly not with Natiko any more.
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And now more of a summary/TLDR of my thoughts here.
From most likely Scum to least likely Scum in each case:
If AB/Ty is Scum (unlikely scenario):
Sky/Chugg
Monkey/Stu
FEPs/Stan
Natiko/Terra
If AB/Ty is Town (likely scenario):
Natiko/Terra
Monkey/Stu
Sky/Chugg
FEPs/Stan
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Ok, here is D2:
Scum is on Sorian here for damn sure, and I think they had a hand in forcing that to be the lynch for the day.
Monkey/Stu look the worst on that vote in my opinion.
Natiko and Terra spreading their votes out this time instead of staying together.
SkyChugg are spread out once again after Chugg moved to us at EoD.
Monkey/Stu plus one of Natiko/Terra or SkyChugg makes sense for Scum here with Bae/Malus stacking their votes over on Reki/Xbro. Monkey acting all concerned about that after the fact and proclaiming that must have been a distancing vote is... suspect as fuck now seeing how it actually was. What a narrative she built there, jesus christ.
I'll look at D4 next, but probably not a whole lot of new insight.
Scum is on Sorian here for damn sure, and I think they had a hand in forcing that to be the lynch for the day.
Monkey/Stu look the worst on that vote in my opinion.
Natiko and Terra spreading their votes out this time instead of staying together.
SkyChugg are spread out once again after Chugg moved to us at EoD.
Monkey/Stu plus one of Natiko/Terra or SkyChugg makes sense for Scum here with Bae/Malus stacking their votes over on Reki/Xbro. Monkey acting all concerned about that after the fact and proclaiming that must have been a distancing vote is... suspect as fuck now seeing how it actually was. What a narrative she built there, jesus christ.
I'll look at D4 next, but probably not a whole lot of new insight.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
And here's D4:
That AB/Fat vote had a mighty amount of suspects on it. That's my main takeaway here.
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My final takeaway from the way the votes have shaken out over the whole game so far:
Monkey/Stu + one of Natiko/Terra or SkyChuggs, or else just Natiko/Terra and SkyChuggs. This seems to make the most sense to me for the remaining Scum team. There is a chance that Stan/FEPs are in on it too, but I was drawing connections between them and Reki/Xbro moreso than I was to any of the others, so I would need to take a closer look there again I think..
That AB/Fat vote had a mighty amount of suspects on it. That's my main takeaway here.
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My final takeaway from the way the votes have shaken out over the whole game so far:
Monkey/Stu + one of Natiko/Terra or SkyChuggs, or else just Natiko/Terra and SkyChuggs. This seems to make the most sense to me for the remaining Scum team. There is a chance that Stan/FEPs are in on it too, but I was drawing connections between them and Reki/Xbro moreso than I was to any of the others, so I would need to take a closer look there again I think..
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Ok, that is pretty much as good of a solution that I can come up with right now.
We should have probably flipped Monkey today.
Vere/Apollo will likely die tonight if Monkey/Stu is Scum, both to get Vere off of Monkey and to make me look bad since I kind of got snappy at Vere when he was throwing doubt around about me.
In the world where Monkey is Town here still, then the Scum team is simply within Natiko/Terra, FEPs/Stan, SkyChugg, and it's most likely just the former two.
There is still the concerning world where AB/Fat is Scum, which just throws a whole wrench into my readings here. If they are Scum, it basically clears Natiko in that case, and it means their partner is within Monkey/Stu, FEPs/Stan, SkyChugg, and again it's probably the former two.
We should have probably flipped Monkey today.
Vere/Apollo will likely die tonight if Monkey/Stu is Scum, both to get Vere off of Monkey and to make me look bad since I kind of got snappy at Vere when he was throwing doubt around about me.
In the world where Monkey is Town here still, then the Scum team is simply within Natiko/Terra, FEPs/Stan, SkyChugg, and it's most likely just the former two.
There is still the concerning world where AB/Fat is Scum, which just throws a whole wrench into my readings here. If they are Scum, it basically clears Natiko in that case, and it means their partner is within Monkey/Stu, FEPs/Stan, SkyChugg, and again it's probably the former two.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Actually no, in this case of AB/Ty being Scum, it is more likely for it to be SkyChugg and Monkey/Stu together as partners for them.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Now, for our target tonight:
Obviously we need to target within the Vanilla claims.
Order of Scum likelihood, in my opinion, for all of them:
Monkey/Stu
Natiko/Terra
FEPs/Stan
AB/Fat
We've already targeted FEPs/Stan on N1 and got no movement, I don't see why we would target there again.
I am pretty damn sure that AB/Fat are just Town here based on votes and stuff.
Therefore, the only logical target is one of Natiko/Terra or Monkey/Stu.
Rac targeted Monkey/Stu on N3 with the Tracker shot that they got from their Bookie Bet and got No Movement.
I think we should target Natiko/Terra for these reasons.
I will wait to hear your thoughts on my conclusions here before I submit the command though.
Obviously we need to target within the Vanilla claims.
Order of Scum likelihood, in my opinion, for all of them:
Monkey/Stu
Natiko/Terra
FEPs/Stan
AB/Fat
We've already targeted FEPs/Stan on N1 and got no movement, I don't see why we would target there again.
I am pretty damn sure that AB/Fat are just Town here based on votes and stuff.
Therefore, the only logical target is one of Natiko/Terra or Monkey/Stu.
Rac targeted Monkey/Stu on N3 with the Tracker shot that they got from their Bookie Bet and got No Movement.
I think we should target Natiko/Terra for these reasons.
I will wait to hear your thoughts on my conclusions here before I submit the command though.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Reading through Xbro's final post again just now, if he is somehow right about however he concluded that there were 3 Scum pairs based on number of threads on OM (how the fuck did he do this, seriously?) then I would look at things like this:
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There are a few interactions throughout the game here that I have a hard time seeing as Scum/Scum.
I am currently seeing Monkey vs. FEPs and Natiko vs. AB as not being Scum/Scum interactions. SkyOdin is probably not partnered with Monkey either with his reads on her and me.
Therefore, in the 3 Scum Pairs world, the most likely Scum teams are:
If I convince myself that I am right on my reads here on what isn't Scum/Scum interactions, and that Xbro was right that there are only 3 Scum pairs, then this is how I see the game right now I think.
We are living in one of these worlds, we just need to find out which one it is.
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There are a few interactions throughout the game here that I have a hard time seeing as Scum/Scum.
I am currently seeing Monkey vs. FEPs and Natiko vs. AB as not being Scum/Scum interactions. SkyOdin is probably not partnered with Monkey either with his reads on her and me.
Therefore, in the 3 Scum Pairs world, the most likely Scum teams are:
- The Natiko World
- Bae/Malus, Natiko/Terra, Sky/Chugg
- Bae/Malus, Natiko/Terra, Monkey/Stu
- Bae/Malus, Natiko/Terra, FEPs/Stan
- The Monkey World
- Bae/Malus, Monkey/Stu, Natiko/Terra
- Bae/Malus, Monkey/Stu, AB/Fat
- The Sky/Chugg World
- Bae/Malus, Sky/Chugg, Natiko/Terra
- Bae/Malus, Sky/Chugg, FEPs/Stan
- Bae/Malus, Sky/Chugg, AB/Fat
- The AB/Fat World
- Bae/Malus, AB/Fat, Sky/Chugg
- Bae/Malus, AB/Fat, Monkey Stu
- Bae/Malus, AB/Fat, FEPs/Stan
- The FEPs/Stan World
- Bae/Malus, FEPs/Stan, Sky/Chugg
- Bae/Malus, FEPs/Stan, Natiko/Terra
- Bae/Malus, FEPs/Stan, AB/Fat
If I convince myself that I am right on my reads here on what isn't Scum/Scum interactions, and that Xbro was right that there are only 3 Scum pairs, then this is how I see the game right now I think.
We are living in one of these worlds, we just need to find out which one it is.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Hmm, I can see a FEPs/Stan and Sky/Chugg final team making sense here looking at D4 maybe.
Sky/Chugg both voted onto FEPs/Stan after the Vere/Apollo reveal. Sky has FEPs/Stan has next likeliest Scum ahead of Xbro/Reki.
Chugg then removes his vote shortly after, saying he thought Stan was making good points against Xbro and wanted to vote for Xbro now because of that.
FEPs then places his vote on Sky/Chuggs and keeps it there as we approached EoD because he thinks they are Scum over any of the Vanilla claims.
I can see this all as distancing for what they see as the inevitable flip of one of them coming pretty soon, especially with SkyChugg both voting onto Stan/FEPs after the Vere reveal. They might have thought people were going to swing there instead of Xbro/Reki, then once they realized the narrative was more against those two, decided to shut up about their partners and go with the flow.
Sky/Chugg both voted onto FEPs/Stan after the Vere/Apollo reveal. Sky has FEPs/Stan has next likeliest Scum ahead of Xbro/Reki.
Chugg then removes his vote shortly after, saying he thought Stan was making good points against Xbro and wanted to vote for Xbro now because of that.
FEPs then places his vote on Sky/Chuggs and keeps it there as we approached EoD because he thinks they are Scum over any of the Vanilla claims.
I can see this all as distancing for what they see as the inevitable flip of one of them coming pretty soon, especially with SkyChugg both voting onto Stan/FEPs after the Vere reveal. They might have thought people were going to swing there instead of Xbro/Reki, then once they realized the narrative was more against those two, decided to shut up about their partners and go with the flow.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
These two pairs also have reads that almost feel like they are forcing them to be different from their partner's in order to give some sort of weird "Yeah, we're kind of off on our reads here together, but it's fine to disagree" excuse that I don't fully buy. It makes me wonder if it's them just pretending to have different reads since Malus/Bae were going for the whole "We vote together!" schtick.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I think I have Natiko as my Top Scum here right now.
He fits in to all the worlds where AB/Fat is Town.
Monkey is a possible partner for him, but her flip doesn't get me as much as Natiko's does I don't think.
Natiko can be paired with a lot of other people.
I think I want to see the vote tomorrow be between Natiko and Monkey. That will be some glorious shit right there.
He fits in to all the worlds where AB/Fat is Town.
Monkey is a possible partner for him, but her flip doesn't get me as much as Natiko's does I don't think.
Natiko can be paired with a lot of other people.
I think I want to see the vote tomorrow be between Natiko and Monkey. That will be some glorious shit right there.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Monkey flipping Town would suck. I would just be back where I am right now fitting together the other players as likely partners.
Monkey flipping Scum points me to either Natiko or AB/Fat as her partner no matter what I think.
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Natiko flipping Town sucks too. I would be almost convinced that Monkey has to be Scum with AB/Fat at that point, or else that Sky/Chugg and FEPs/Stan were it the whole time.
Natiko flipping Scum opens some doors. There's a chance he is partnered with any of Sky/Chugg, FEPs/Stan, or Monkey/Stu, so their reactions to him being up for the vote will be telling I think.
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AB/Fat flipping Town confirms what I already believe to be true. I just cross of any possible chance that they were Scum.
AB/Fat flipping Scum means I look really close at Monkey. Possible on Sky/Chugg or FEPs/Stan.
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FEPs/Stan flipping Town crosses them off the suspect list, and I will think very bad thoughts about Monkey.
FEPs/Stan flipping Scum means the partner is likely within Sky/Chugg or Natiko/Terra.
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Sky/Chugg flipping Town means my meta was right about Chugg. Scum can still exist in the Monkey/Stu, AB/Fat world and the Natiko/Terra FEPs/Stan world.
Sky/Chugg flipping Scum means the other Scum is either Natiko/Terra or FEPs/Stan I would think.
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So, when looking at this, what provides me with the best info moving forward?
Monkey Scum narrows things down to probably Natiko/Terra or AB/Fat, but Monkey Town keeps us where we are.
Natiko Scum opens a lot of doors for a possible partner, Natiko Town opens up AB/Fat as Scum some more, which means the Monkey world is open there with them, and Sky/Chugg and FEPs/Stan still makes sense.
AB/Fat Town means nothing to me because that's already where I am, AB/Fat Scum means I was very wrong, Monkey could be Scum there with them, so could Sky/Chugg or FEPs/Stan though I think.
Sky/Chugg Town means Monkey worlds are still wide open, as well as Natiko/Terra + FEPs/Stan.
Sky/Chugg Scum means it has to be within Natiko/Terra and FEPs/Stan for the remaining partner.
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This is all just me babbling and repeating myself over and over at this point, sorry if you actually read through all this shit lol.
I am just trying to get my thoughts down on a most likely Scum flip here.
Natiko/Terra seems like it to me. Monkey/Stu is possible as well. Both can lead to other partners being found, or they can be Scum together.
I really just think it needs to be either Natiko/Terra or Monkey/Stu tomorrow.
Monkey flipping Scum points me to either Natiko or AB/Fat as her partner no matter what I think.
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Natiko flipping Town sucks too. I would be almost convinced that Monkey has to be Scum with AB/Fat at that point, or else that Sky/Chugg and FEPs/Stan were it the whole time.
Natiko flipping Scum opens some doors. There's a chance he is partnered with any of Sky/Chugg, FEPs/Stan, or Monkey/Stu, so their reactions to him being up for the vote will be telling I think.
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AB/Fat flipping Town confirms what I already believe to be true. I just cross of any possible chance that they were Scum.
AB/Fat flipping Scum means I look really close at Monkey. Possible on Sky/Chugg or FEPs/Stan.
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FEPs/Stan flipping Town crosses them off the suspect list, and I will think very bad thoughts about Monkey.
FEPs/Stan flipping Scum means the partner is likely within Sky/Chugg or Natiko/Terra.
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Sky/Chugg flipping Town means my meta was right about Chugg. Scum can still exist in the Monkey/Stu, AB/Fat world and the Natiko/Terra FEPs/Stan world.
Sky/Chugg flipping Scum means the other Scum is either Natiko/Terra or FEPs/Stan I would think.
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So, when looking at this, what provides me with the best info moving forward?
Monkey Scum narrows things down to probably Natiko/Terra or AB/Fat, but Monkey Town keeps us where we are.
Natiko Scum opens a lot of doors for a possible partner, Natiko Town opens up AB/Fat as Scum some more, which means the Monkey world is open there with them, and Sky/Chugg and FEPs/Stan still makes sense.
AB/Fat Town means nothing to me because that's already where I am, AB/Fat Scum means I was very wrong, Monkey could be Scum there with them, so could Sky/Chugg or FEPs/Stan though I think.
Sky/Chugg Town means Monkey worlds are still wide open, as well as Natiko/Terra + FEPs/Stan.
Sky/Chugg Scum means it has to be within Natiko/Terra and FEPs/Stan for the remaining partner.
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This is all just me babbling and repeating myself over and over at this point, sorry if you actually read through all this shit lol.
I am just trying to get my thoughts down on a most likely Scum flip here.
Natiko/Terra seems like it to me. Monkey/Stu is possible as well. Both can lead to other partners being found, or they can be Scum together.
I really just think it needs to be either Natiko/Terra or Monkey/Stu tomorrow.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Fuck me so hard if we don't figure this shit out by the way. Ugh.
I hate trying to figure this shit out under pressure when we're getting close to MyLo/LyLo.
I always fuck everything up at the end. Every. Fucking. Game. I just can't help but be completely wrong every time.
If Monkey and Natiko are both Town here, I'm basically throwing the game based on paranoia about them from past games.
If even one of them is Scum though, then god dammit it's going to feel good to see that flip.
If they are both Scum and we can take them out, it is going to be the sweetest revenge ever. But if they are both Scum and we don't take them out, then fuck me forever, they can manipulate the shit out of me in these games and I am powerless to stop it and might as well just hang it up now.
I hate trying to figure this shit out under pressure when we're getting close to MyLo/LyLo.
I always fuck everything up at the end. Every. Fucking. Game. I just can't help but be completely wrong every time.
If Monkey and Natiko are both Town here, I'm basically throwing the game based on paranoia about them from past games.
If even one of them is Scum though, then god dammit it's going to feel good to see that flip.
If they are both Scum and we can take them out, it is going to be the sweetest revenge ever. But if they are both Scum and we don't take them out, then fuck me forever, they can manipulate the shit out of me in these games and I am powerless to stop it and might as well just hang it up now.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Ok, I lied, once last observation looking at the D2 votes:
Why does Natiko not want to vote for Sorian so much? He spent all of D2 trying to find anyone else to vote for.
If Natiko is Town, all he should really care about is that his partner is voting for Sorian.
But why is Natiko so reluctant to vote there too, even though he was also shading Sorian and arguing with him during the day?
Perhaps because his other Scum mates are already on the vote!
This would mean either Monkey/Stu or FEPs/Stan.
What do you think of this take?
Why does Natiko not want to vote for Sorian so much? He spent all of D2 trying to find anyone else to vote for.
If Natiko is Town, all he should really care about is that his partner is voting for Sorian.
But why is Natiko so reluctant to vote there too, even though he was also shading Sorian and arguing with him during the day?
Perhaps because his other Scum mates are already on the vote!
This would mean either Monkey/Stu or FEPs/Stan.
What do you think of this take?
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Actually, this works for Sky/Chugg too, since Chugg switched off of Sorian and on to us.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Ok, I lied again, more rambling thoughts lol.
I think I am down to this right now for tomorrow, because I think I want to try stepping into the world where the Messengers are a Town role, and Scum has 2 pairs left, with either a full-blown Ninja plus a Goon, or else X-Shot Ninja and X-Shot Strongman.
There are four worlds that we could possibly be living in under these assumptions.
I think I am down to this right now for tomorrow, because I think I want to try stepping into the world where the Messengers are a Town role, and Scum has 2 pairs left, with either a full-blown Ninja plus a Goon, or else X-Shot Ninja and X-Shot Strongman.
There are four worlds that we could possibly be living in under these assumptions.
- Monkey/Stu and Natiko/Terra.
- This is the most terrifying world and why I think one of them needs to be flipped tomorrow.
- Monkey/Stu and AB/Fat.
- This is the main Natiko is Town world. It also means that we had Town/Scum on D1, the fake green check was a thing, and that Monkey has been just a literal Scum Mastermind this whole game.
- Natiko/Terra and FEPs/Stan.
- This is the world that I hope and am praying that we live in, because it means Monkey is Town and I don't have to hate myself after the game for allowing myself to start trusting her again.
- FEPs/Stan and AB/Fat
- This is the best possible world under these circumstances. I see this as being very unlikely though, but it would also be an ideal world to live in because it means both Monkey and Natiko are Town.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
There will be 9 pairs left tomorrow.
Assuming 2 Scum pairs left, that's 7 Town/2 Scum.
D5 starts at 7/2.
Mislynch, Night Kill.
D6 starts at 5/2.
Mislynch, Night Kill.
D7 starts at 3/2. This is LyLo.
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Now let's say there are 3 Scum pairs left.
D5 starts at 6/3.
Mislynch, Night Kill.
D6 starts at 4/3. This is LyLo.
------------
At worst, we have one mislynch to work with, at best we have two.
I think we can afford to flip one of Monkey or Natiko tomorrow to better inform where to go next.
I could see an argument made as well to just go ahead and rip off the AB/Ty bandaid and get the D1 train info for sure.
Otherwise, a vote for FEPs/Stan or Sky/Chugg can wait a day I think.
Assuming 2 Scum pairs left, that's 7 Town/2 Scum.
D5 starts at 7/2.
Mislynch, Night Kill.
D6 starts at 5/2.
Mislynch, Night Kill.
D7 starts at 3/2. This is LyLo.
----------
Now let's say there are 3 Scum pairs left.
D5 starts at 6/3.
Mislynch, Night Kill.
D6 starts at 4/3. This is LyLo.
------------
At worst, we have one mislynch to work with, at best we have two.
I think we can afford to flip one of Monkey or Natiko tomorrow to better inform where to go next.
I could see an argument made as well to just go ahead and rip off the AB/Ty bandaid and get the D1 train info for sure.
Otherwise, a vote for FEPs/Stan or Sky/Chugg can wait a day I think.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
See I think targeting monkey and getting something basically makes scum team HAVE to include Rac’s team at that point.
They are who I recommend
They are who I recommend
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I’ll read through the rest at 6pm, gotta go pick up the kiddos
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I can get behind that reasoning, yeah.
I can put together a world where it is Rac/Vincent and Monkey/Stu, though I have to bring in some conspiracies, an accusation about a fake claim, and my patented "No, Scum has a JoaT, you gotta believe me!" case to make it happen I think lol.
I don't buy it as much as the other ones, but it exists, and the votes from throughout the game line up for it to exist as well, with the voting records from Rac/Vincent being not very impressive at all. They would have all stacked on the AB vote just now on D4 though, but I could see it.
Just my pure attempts at looking into Rac's soul tell me they are Town here, but it's not impossible for me to be dead wrong on that kind of stuff, so I want to keep my mind open as much as possible here.
I can put together a world where it is Rac/Vincent and Monkey/Stu, though I have to bring in some conspiracies, an accusation about a fake claim, and my patented "No, Scum has a JoaT, you gotta believe me!" case to make it happen I think lol.
I don't buy it as much as the other ones, but it exists, and the votes from throughout the game line up for it to exist as well, with the voting records from Rac/Vincent being not very impressive at all. They would have all stacked on the AB vote just now on D4 though, but I could see it.
Just my pure attempts at looking into Rac's soul tell me they are Town here, but it's not impossible for me to be dead wrong on that kind of stuff, so I want to keep my mind open as much as possible here.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
But yeah, I'll go ahead and submit the command on Monkey/Stu here. We can change it up still before actions lock tomorrow if we decide otherwise, but since I feel like I've been kind of driving this boat a lot here, I want you to have a say in things too, because I can be very wrong about stuff in the late game haha.
DETECT: Dr. Monkey and Stuart444
DETECT: Dr. Monkey and Stuart444
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I'm trying to stay positive about this game, because it feels like I'm fucking everything up right now and we're going to lose, I've been here in this same spot in my last like 3 or 4 games.
I'm going to do some math to calm me down.
------
We have seen 2 Town PR flips, 1 Scum PR Flip, and 4 Vanilla Town flips in this game so far.
There are 6 more pairs claiming Town PRs and 4 more pairs claiming Vanilla Town in this game.
We can confirm that 4 of these Town PR claims, including ours, are real Town PRs. 1 of them could be of either alignment, and 1 could possibly be fake.
Adding these numbers up together, we get the following information:
6 Confirmed Town PRs
4 Confirmed Vanilla Town
1 Confirmed Scum PR
2 Unconfirmed Town PR Claims
4 Unconfirmed Vanilla Claims
Now let's take all the Claimants at their word:
8 Town PRs
8 Vanilla Town
1 Scum PR
...Now, let's be realistic here:
8 Town PRs
6 Vanilla Town
3 Scum
Either that, or:
7 Town PRs
7 Vanilla Town
3 Scum
Or, if everyone is fake claiming:
6 Town PRs
8 Vanilla Town
3 Scum
That appears to be the math for the different worlds here depending on how many of the Vanillas left in the game are telling the truth.
Which would you say is most likely the case in your experience playing in Mafia games?
I'm going to do some math to calm me down.
------
We have seen 2 Town PR flips, 1 Scum PR Flip, and 4 Vanilla Town flips in this game so far.
There are 6 more pairs claiming Town PRs and 4 more pairs claiming Vanilla Town in this game.
We can confirm that 4 of these Town PR claims, including ours, are real Town PRs. 1 of them could be of either alignment, and 1 could possibly be fake.
Adding these numbers up together, we get the following information:
6 Confirmed Town PRs
4 Confirmed Vanilla Town
1 Confirmed Scum PR
2 Unconfirmed Town PR Claims
4 Unconfirmed Vanilla Claims
Now let's take all the Claimants at their word:
8 Town PRs
8 Vanilla Town
1 Scum PR
...Now, let's be realistic here:
8 Town PRs
6 Vanilla Town
3 Scum
Either that, or:
7 Town PRs
7 Vanilla Town
3 Scum
Or, if everyone is fake claiming:
6 Town PRs
8 Vanilla Town
3 Scum
That appears to be the math for the different worlds here depending on how many of the Vanillas left in the game are telling the truth.
Which would you say is most likely the case in your experience playing in Mafia games?
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I don't know if I can put much more into this stuff overnight honestly, I am just feeling so burned out.
The pool of players to pick from is so small, and I feel like I've gone over every possible combination, and most of them make sense as a possibility.
I don't know what I can actually do to just pick out who the real Scum is from the rest of the Town anymore.
I've got my pure reads, I've got the claims, I've got my vote analysis, I've got my math, but it's still all pointing at the same few players, and they all look just as likely as the rest when all things are considered.
Monkey/Stu
Natiko/Terra
FEPs/Stan
AB/Fat
They are not all Vanilla Town.
At best, we can flip two more Town before hitting LyLo on D7 assuming there are only 2 Scum pairs left.
I think going into D5, we just need to figure out which one of those Vanilla claimants above, regardless of alignment, is going to give Town the most possible info moving forward so they can get at least one Scum flip by D7.
If we can get ourselves one more Scum flip before then, we get another day, and I think we can get the win.
The pool of players to pick from is so small, and I feel like I've gone over every possible combination, and most of them make sense as a possibility.
I don't know what I can actually do to just pick out who the real Scum is from the rest of the Town anymore.
I've got my pure reads, I've got the claims, I've got my vote analysis, I've got my math, but it's still all pointing at the same few players, and they all look just as likely as the rest when all things are considered.
Monkey/Stu
Natiko/Terra
FEPs/Stan
AB/Fat
They are not all Vanilla Town.
At best, we can flip two more Town before hitting LyLo on D7 assuming there are only 2 Scum pairs left.
I think going into D5, we just need to figure out which one of those Vanilla claimants above, regardless of alignment, is going to give Town the most possible info moving forward so they can get at least one Scum flip by D7.
If we can get ourselves one more Scum flip before then, we get another day, and I think we can get the win.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Yeah, I'm still pretty much at the same spot as I was here in this quote as we approach the start of the day.
Still fine with us checking Monkey/Stu tonight as well.
I'm pretty confident we'll still be alive here today. Vere/Apollo will likely die since they are the only 100% Confirmed Town in the game.
I still mainly just want to pursue the Vanilla claimants, there has to be at least one Scum pair in there, and the last of the Scum pairs could easily just be residing in there as well.
Still fine with us checking Monkey/Stu tonight as well.
I'm pretty confident we'll still be alive here today. Vere/Apollo will likely die since they are the only 100% Confirmed Town in the game.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Ok, is it true you have a file on your computer that is literally labeled “monkey is always scum”?
I agree, at this point I think the next scum kill will tell us the most information about the remaining team. It’s absolutely critical we don’t let monkey’s team lead the conversation tomorrow
I agree, at this point I think the next scum kill will tell us the most information about the remaining team. It’s absolutely critical we don’t let monkey’s team lead the conversation tomorrow
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Because they drove the conversation today, but Neither of them took any blame on the actual lynch.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Which to me screams scum
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I hope we get movement. Really I do, one game balancing thing that’s been running in my mind, we have claimed tracked shots and a motion detector and no sleepwalker?
Which blows my mind.
Also Arkham asylum mafia, I was a JOAT scum, so think of me as the “there can totally be a scum JOAT” to counterbalance you.
Which blows my mind.
Also Arkham asylum mafia, I was a JOAT scum, so think of me as the “there can totally be a scum JOAT” to counterbalance you.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
True, the only things that seem to have been able to give us positive movement results at Night from Town were the Doctor and the Messengers, we would be unable to detect anyone else unless the Bookies won an action and we targeted them or their target.
So for Scum, we could detect movement from the Role Cop while they still had shots. What else? Well, the kill is probably hidden from us via a Ninja. The one lingering thing in my mind is that the Messengers could be Scum, or the Bookies are a fake role claim to cover for the fact that they have performed Night actions and might have been detected by us, hence why they wanted to wait until last to claim any actions.
Those are the paranoid thoughts I have regarding the claims that are on the board and how they relate to our own role.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
And another no movement.
Yeah, we can just hardly detect anything at night.
The Role Cop and the Doctor are dead, we could have detected them.
The Messengers we can detect.
The Bookie Bears, assuming it's real, we could detect.
All the other claims/roles we've seen? Day abilities.
So what else does Scum have? Ninja/Goon or Ninja/Strongman seems the most likely. JoaT/Goon is possible I guess?
Yeah, we can just hardly detect anything at night.
The Role Cop and the Doctor are dead, we could have detected them.
The Messengers we can detect.
The Bookie Bears, assuming it's real, we could detect.
All the other claims/roles we've seen? Day abilities.
So what else does Scum have? Ninja/Goon or Ninja/Strongman seems the most likely. JoaT/Goon is possible I guess?
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
At this point ninja/goon, or bookies/ninja. (With an outside chance that it’s joat/Goon and we have just been really unlucky)
Seriously, I am not sold that the bookies are town. It’s an obvious way to give a scum team more power without making them OP.
Let’s see who dies and roll with monkey as lynch target
Seriously, I am not sold that the bookies are town. It’s an obvious way to give a scum team more power without making them OP.
Let’s see who dies and roll with monkey as lynch target
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I mean we have to have a point to our role... we can’t be just a red herring...
Well I mean we could be, but that has nothing to do with colonel mustard’s work on the new fusion bomb, ms white’s husband that’s a nuclear physicist and ms peacock’s husband on the appropriations committee...
Well I mean we could be, but that has nothing to do with colonel mustard’s work on the new fusion bomb, ms white’s husband that’s a nuclear physicist and ms peacock’s husband on the appropriations committee...
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Fanto
Confirmed Town
Otherwise, yeah, I'm down to push for Monkey today. I think you should definitely lay out your theories here on this since I didn't come up with it so I don't want to have to speak for you, but I do agree that it is a possibility.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I've got a pre-typed post ready to go with a vote on Monkey here to start the day.
I lay out my worlds based on the Vanilla claims that I put together in here, and then I also express that I would like us to vote within the Vanilla claims today and go for the one we feel will give Town the most info in the comings days so they can definitely hit another Scum before LyLo and get another day to find the rest.
Then I also bring up your case against Monkey in here concerning her and Stu going after Reki/Xbro but then not voting there and you finding that Scummy, because I fully agree with that take.
I also briefly touch on your Bookie Bears theory, but leave room for you to expand on that more yourself in the thread.
I lay out my worlds based on the Vanilla claims that I put together in here, and then I also express that I would like us to vote within the Vanilla claims today and go for the one we feel will give Town the most info in the comings days so they can definitely hit another Scum before LyLo and get another day to find the rest.
Then I also bring up your case against Monkey in here concerning her and Stu going after Reki/Xbro but then not voting there and you finding that Scummy, because I fully agree with that take.
I also briefly touch on your Bookie Bears theory, but leave room for you to expand on that more yourself in the thread.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Leave bookies out, I will explain that but I kinda want to wait and see what monkey’s or natiko’s pre-typed statements.
It’s really just an inkling more than a straight up theory. It’s entirely based on mechanic stacking, balancing and their name
It’s really just an inkling more than a straight up theory. It’s entirely based on mechanic stacking, balancing and their name
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
And absolutely include the monkey Stu starting the Reki/Xbro party and then jumping ship with little else.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Yeah glad we left it out of the pre typed message
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I somewhat put faith in Natiko's read here on Monkey/Stu because even if Natiko is Scum, I don't think he tries to Scum read Monkey and draw her ire.
Of course, they could be Scum together and he is playing the deflection game now, which is just major manipulation bullshit, ugh lol.
Of course, they could be Scum together and he is playing the deflection game now, which is just major manipulation bullshit, ugh lol.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I think I can get behind FEPs/Stan for today.
It's like I said earlier, I do not see FEPs vs. Monkey yesterday as having been Scum vs. Scum, it just felt like that was a real push there from Monkey to start interrogating him when he showed up.
It was either Town/Scum or Town/Town. So if FEPs/Stan flip Scum, I feel infinitely better about Monkey tomorrow.
FEPs/Stan fits into a world where they are Scum with Natiko/Terra or AB/Fat. We can still flip both of those pairs if we hit a Scum FEPs/Stan today.
If we hit Town FEPs/Stan, then Monkey/Stu look even worse tomorrow and hopefully Town will put that one together if we die.
It's like I said earlier, I do not see FEPs vs. Monkey yesterday as having been Scum vs. Scum, it just felt like that was a real push there from Monkey to start interrogating him when he showed up.
It was either Town/Scum or Town/Town. So if FEPs/Stan flip Scum, I feel infinitely better about Monkey tomorrow.
FEPs/Stan fits into a world where they are Scum with Natiko/Terra or AB/Fat. We can still flip both of those pairs if we hit a Scum FEPs/Stan today.
If we hit Town FEPs/Stan, then Monkey/Stu look even worse tomorrow and hopefully Town will put that one together if we die.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
And look at how the day has progressed... dr monkey and Stu are leading the conversation.
Stu focusing on FEP/Stan, who coincidentally isn’t who they voted for yesterday...
Kyan still being on AB makes sense for town. Didn’t lynch first target still go for that target.
Stu focusing on FEP/Stan, who coincidentally isn’t who they voted for yesterday...
Kyan still being on AB makes sense for town. Didn’t lynch first target still go for that target.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I can get behind Natiko. I think they have a good head on their shoulders today. They aren’t trying to lead the conversation, and are tryin to present options.
I think Kyan/Donna are very much town now. No question.
I think Kyan/Donna are very much town now. No question.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I really want the other nilla wafer townies to come in and chime in.
Longer this happens the more I’m convinced that scum is both there
Longer this happens the more I’m convinced that scum is both there
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Hey it’s cool, I know my ability to play has been rough the first few days.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
On mobile right now, but yeah. I'm not sure how to read Monkey here so far today, she seems pissed, but I dont think that's alignment indicative for her here.
I do agree I want to see more discussions with the Vanillas here, it looks like AB just put out a read list so that's probably something worth examingi.
I do agree I want to see more discussions with the Vanillas here, it looks like AB just put out a read list so that's probably something worth examingi.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
What do you think of both Monkey and AB saying they don't think there is an infinite-shot Ninja in the game? Monkey specifically saying this because it would make our role a waste?
I suppose it's still possible they are a X-Shot Ninja, but then were they not using these Ninja kills earlier in the game? So they had 3 power roles? Or else it is a JoaT with X amount of Strong/Ninja shots + a Goon?
I suppose it's still possible they are a X-Shot Ninja, but then were they not using these Ninja kills earlier in the game? So they had 3 power roles? Or else it is a JoaT with X amount of Strong/Ninja shots + a Goon?
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I do find it interesting though that no one ever seems to want to vote for Natiko.
Why?
Are he and Terra really just the Towniest Townies in the game right now?
I wouldn't say so, especially not after the Vanilla claim.
That honestly seems like it would be the hardest vote to pull off out of the Vanilla claims just going on the majority of the thread's general thoughts throughout the game.
Why?
Are he and Terra really just the Towniest Townies in the game right now?
I wouldn't say so, especially not after the Vanilla claim.
That honestly seems like it would be the hardest vote to pull off out of the Vanilla claims just going on the majority of the thread's general thoughts throughout the game.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I do fully admit though that I am conditioned to see Natiko as Scum just based on the last couple games, and only ever playing with him when he was Scum.
Also, he is the definition of "Scum would never do that as Scum" after what he did in 999 lol.
Small Brain: Scum should vote for a Townie right away in LyLo.
Big Brain: Scum should wait and let Town vote for Town in LyLo and then hammer the win.
Natiko Brain: Scum should self-vote in LyLo and then let their partner hammer someone else for the win.
Also, he is the definition of "Scum would never do that as Scum" after what he did in 999 lol.
Small Brain: Scum should vote for a Townie right away in LyLo.
Big Brain: Scum should wait and let Town vote for Town in LyLo and then hammer the win.
Natiko Brain: Scum should self-vote in LyLo and then let their partner hammer someone else for the win.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I think at this point we need a flip.
I believe that some of our power roles were lying.
Or maybe we are just terribly unlucky
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Stuart pushing to out that plan of kyonna’s is super scummy.
Like seriously, scummy as hell.
We would have played ball if invited no problem.
Like seriously, scummy as hell.
We would have played ball if invited no problem.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Exactly, i feel like today would be better if we just ended it.
Gameplay is slowing down today, and we still have 24 hours left.
Gameplay is slowing down today, and we still have 24 hours left.
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I'd like to at least hear from Apollo still since she hasn't check in yet, and it's always nice to hear more LP hot takes thoughts as well.
But yeah, discussion is basically "Which Vanilla do we flip today?" and most people are stuck on AB.
I think it's probably worth it to give some more time for discussions and see if votes shift at all though.
But yeah, discussion is basically "Which Vanilla do we flip today?" and most people are stuck on AB.
I think it's probably worth it to give some more time for discussions and see if votes shift at all though.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
True, I wish Apollo would show up as well
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I'm starting the think the easy world is that it's FEPs/Stan and Natiko/Terra.
They come into today diametrically opposed and get into arguments about D1 votes. Creates distance, they both know they are stuck.
Natiko goes hard on AB being Scum for sure.
FEPs goes hard on the opposite, and plays nice guy with the "solvers" like me, Monkey, and Donna, even though he's been calling Monkey Scum.
Makes sense to me, but I doubt we get either of those flips today.
They come into today diametrically opposed and get into arguments about D1 votes. Creates distance, they both know they are stuck.
Natiko goes hard on AB being Scum for sure.
FEPs goes hard on the opposite, and plays nice guy with the "solvers" like me, Monkey, and Donna, even though he's been calling Monkey Scum.
Makes sense to me, but I doubt we get either of those flips today.
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
I AGree, at this point we are going to take 22 hours to not say much. Just want Apollo to join in and then I would say let’s call it
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
How do you feel about trying to bait a hammer? AB is at 5, with neither of our votes. One of us (or both) swap to that group and then see if scum jumps...
Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Yeah Natiko and Apollo throwing up stuff and us and skychuggs. I’m ok with skychuggs. But in my mind they play the role of a sleepwalker. Diversion for the motion detector.
What would we have done if we had gotten a positive motion result
What would we have done if we had gotten a positive motion result
Fanto
Confirmed Town
I honestly think the best bet for the positive motion result was if people were actually keeping quiet about their damn roles in this game lol. Then we could have confirmed later claims, or pointed a finger and said "no, you're lying about this."
Like, let's say Bae/Malus never fake claim and we target them on N2 and got movement. Now when we get to the Mass Claim, they go "Uhhh, Vanilla!" And we go "N2: Bae/Malus - Motion Detected" and no one else says they targeted there that night. Hello, contradiction, likely a lie, vote out liars, etc.
Like, let's say Bae/Malus never fake claim and we target them on N2 and got movement. Now when we get to the Mass Claim, they go "Uhhh, Vanilla!" And we go "N2: Bae/Malus - Motion Detected" and no one else says they targeted there that night. Hello, contradiction, likely a lie, vote out liars, etc.