Scum Thread The Evil Bears Suite

Discussion in 'Love Boat 3' started by The Bear, May 14, 2019.

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  1. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    It is what it is. We got fucked over by weird happenstance about how replacements/bans are handled.
     
  2. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Think I'm going to take another good, long break from mafia after this. I don't know that I will ever feel as fucked over as I do by this game. Sorry teammates for how much I've complained in here.
     
  3. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Here's our best shot at winning:

    Tomorrow Terra and I push for FEPStan's lynch as the "definite, final scum". We point out that FEP tried to nudge the lynch away from LP and himself and that LP did the same. Then that lynch happens hopefully without a bunch of dumb shit happening.

    Then in the final day we push for SkyChugg's lynch because it explains why they let AB go. AB gets lynched over SkyChugg because SkyChugg's power is still active and AB had used up his shot. SkyChugg's defensive vote against AB means nothing if they're scum/scum. Sky didn't join Chugg on D1 for AB. We pushed AB as a team D1, I was on Bae D1, you were against her D2, and we both jumped on D3. I hard went for AB over multiple day phases and was ready to push him out D2, why do that if we're going to fake green check him? I also made a push against Donna when scum would know their identities.
     
  4. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    @Terraforce I would not be surprised whatsoever if one of us gets grabbed by kyonna tonight. Kill Verello tonight I think if I get grabbed.
     
  5. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Bear hasn't said we're grabbed so we're safe today - must've grabbed FEP or Stan. So we just pray we can push a (hopefully fast) turbo on FEP. If we're lucky FEP will make noise about SkyChugg and maybe someone believes him, dunno. Then in lylo we have to bury SkyChugg.

    The question, then, is who do we think is most likely to side with us and bury SkyChugg? We will be getting rid of 2/3 of: Verello, Kyonna, and Dr. Stu. We need to determine now who we want to keep in case we get split in the night before lylo. If we do get split and we're keeping Kyonna whoever gets grabbed needs to do a lot of work with them about Dr. Stu and SkyChugg to see if we can get them on our side going into lylo. We can't operate under the assumption that kyonna will live, in fact you should act like you assume Kyonna will in fact die as the mostly confirmed town they are. Then if they live hopefully we did enough to sell them to our cause.
     
  6. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    I think the final three should be us, Dr. Stu, and SkyChuggs. I feel either of the two would vote the other before us. Kyonna and Verello especially are close to hard confirmed as town for many, so I'm less confident in a match up against them being in our favor. As long as we night kill Kyonna we won't have to worry about any confirmation nonsense.
     
  7. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    I waver. Monkey was scunreading us prior to the AB flip. But I may have that small ability to appeal to her based on our LB2 catastrophe.
     
  8. The Bear

    The Bear Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society

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    Note: Since you are the last scum pair remaining, you may use your roleblock and kill at the same time.
     
  9. The Bear

    The Bear Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society

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    Also a generic reminder of night commands
     
  10. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    KILL: Verelios
     
  11. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    At least we won't have to convince people SkyChugg can message and kill.
     
  12. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Reasons to suspect FlatStan:
    • Neither joined the Baelus vote on D3
    • Neither joined the AB vote on D5
    • We now know scum are likely to be 4 boats - this indicates that if a scum lynch was avoided D5 they would enter D6 4 town - 3 scum lylo
    • Explains why scum FEP would hard defend scum AB
    • Were on the LPSae vote as a defensive vote only
    • Post #5899 - LP advocates that FEPStan is not the correct boat to go for
    • Post #5905 - LP does a 180 and seems to think FEP is a fine lynch to go for
    • LP then goes on to primarily push for Dr. Stu without even really bothering to mention other potential scum reads - never makes a case for FEP or shares his thoughts on one
    • Post #6086 - FEP advocates that LP is not the correct boat to go for
    • Post #6094 - FEP advocates that we should go for Kyonna or SkyChugg, most likely SkyChugg

    Just putting some of this here for us to have to reference. Going to do another for SkyChugg and Dr. Stu, though I think the case for SkyChugg will be stronger.
     
  13. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    If you have other things to add feel free to quote and add on.
     
  14. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Reasons to suspect Dr. Stu:
    • D1 Dr. Monkey moved from Baelus to kitslor and remained there instead of going AB
    • Convenient timing of the Baelus push (immediately after shots had been used)
    • General through line of leaning towards believing AB is town and doubting the boat opposite them (initially myself, and ultimately SkyChugg)
    • Voted SkyChugg over AB on D5
    • That is odd because on D4 they voted AB over Rexbro (argument being the vote was to try and create wagons and not have it be a one sided vote - potentially NAI)
    Big ass reason to trust though and hard to argue against:
    • Led the push on LPSae, also led the push on Baelus, very unlikely to be voted out at this point
    • Not a good push for us to make
     
  15. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Dr. Stu:
    • D1 Dr. Monkey moved from Baelus to kitslor and remained there instead of going AB
    • D1 Dr. Monkey explicitly states she believes AB is more likely to be town than kitslor in Post #1734
    • Convenient timing of the Baelus push (immediately after shots had been used)
    • General through line of leaning towards believing AB is town and doubting the boat opposite them (initially myself, and ultimately SkyChugg)
    • Voted SkyChugg over AB on D5
    • That is odd because on D4 they voted AB over Rexbro (argument being the vote was to try and create wagons and not have it be a one sided vote - potentially NAI)
    Big ass reason to trust though and hard to argue against:
    • Led the push on LPSae, also led the push on Baelus, very unlikely to be voted out at this point
    • Not a good push for us to make
     
  16. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Reasons to suspect SkyChugg:
    • Chugg's vote is on AB D1, but spends the EOD saying he believes both are potentially town and that he'll switch to kitslor to avoid a potential tie (Posts #1705, 1710, 1723, 1732, 1739, 1752)
    • Sky agrees at Post #1709 and never moves his vote to AB to join Chugg and no offer is made to avoid a tie in this manner
    • Chugg attempts to switch his vote to Kalor seconds too late in Post #1763 (first post immediately following day end command)
    • D3 SkyChugg never join the Baelus vote
    • N1 SkyChugg sent a message to Coolestbeat accusing them of scum but "town read" their reaction in Post #3345
    • N2 SkyChugg apparently sent a message to AB revealing their identities - this is after scum were willing to fake green check a scummate, potentially this is part of a grand plan to all have each other's backs
    • D3 Chugg gets nervous about being pitted against Kyonna in Post #3306
    • Sky defends Baelus/pushes elsewhere in Posts #3414, 3739, 3838, 3850, 3908, 3909, 4010
    • Chugg defends Baelus/pushes elsewhere in Posts #3258, 3263, 3285, 3289, 3300, 3404, 3411, 3417, 3426, 3431, 3445 (starts to backpedal when his pushes aren't gaining traction), but then huge push to defend Baelus in 3522, 3525, 3529, 3545. After the chat discrepancy comes out still waffles around in Post #3854.
    • Chugg in Post #3412 - interesting to note he was "going to scumread" Coolest for the Brazil info but then didn't due to the double vote
    • D5 is the competing wagon to AB and self pres votes AB (NAI)
    • Interesting thing? AB beats the SkyChugg wagon by two votes. Confirmed scum LP and confirmed scum Coolest vote for AB as well, were they to vote for SkyChugg that wagon would have gone instead
    • Why would they opt to vote for their teammate? Their other teammate, SkyChugg, is the competing wagon
    • SkyChugg's ability is unlimited and gives him a slight amount of town cred as his ability is confirmed to exist
    • AB's ability was 1-shot and likely long since used up - better target to bus than SkyChugg
    • Sky in Post #5542 advocates for people to switch to FEP instead of them (despite ultimately town reading FEP, potentially scum trying to generate interest in a town wagon)
    • Sky and Chugg in Posts #5666, 5683, 5787 flub around about what Chugg has been pushing and don't seem to know what their stances about my boat actually are
    • Sky in Post #5795 thinks FEP is town based on his recent play (goes on to push FEP over LPSae in D6)
    • Sky in Post #5839 - Town reads LP/Coolest, doesn't think AB and FEP are both scum (despite the next day pushing for FEP's flip after AB flips scum and defending LPSae)
    • D5 Sky posits that perhaps the lynch should swing to myself or Dr. Monkey instead of AB and themselves in Post #5866
    • We now know scum can use an ability at the same time as submitting the kill when they're the final scum
    • D6 SkyChugg both want FEPStan out over LPSae and advocate for this in:
    • Sky Posts #5913, 5916, 5926, 5955, 6041, 6126
    • Chugg Posts #5894, 5902, 5903, 5929, 5933, 5967, 5972, 5982, 5985, 5987, 6020, 6120, 6136
    • D6 Sky never votes and appears to be MIA towards day end which prevents the vote from being tied, Chugg ultimately folds and hammers LP
     
  17. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    If all that shit isn't enough to bury SkyChugg then GG. Just a matter of seeing if FEP can get thrown out first. Honestly hoping town will just opt to turbo him out of hubris.

    Still not sure if I want to go kyonna or Dr. Stu for the person we need to trick into voting SkyChugg.
     
  18. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    We need to 100% be settled on who we kill before this day phase ends in case kyonna grab us so we know how hard we need to sell it (or if we can just cruise through it)
     
  19. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Try and keep this read on SkyChugg under wraps until after the next flip. We want our strongest case to be reserved for lylo. It’ll also be sketchy if we start seeding the skychuggs doubt too early.
     
  20. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Ugh I was concerned Dr. Stu would end up with a lot of the same stuff about SkyChugg as I pulled out. This is going to suck if we get stuck trying to oust FEP in lylo. The argument is so much weaker.
     
  21. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    We for sure kill Kyonna now. Let’s hope we can ride this out without a swerve.
     
  22. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Jesus Nat thank you for all the work you put in. Ever since Friday I've been stacked irl so my activity has taken a hell of a hit. What you posted really helps cover what I'm not able to do myself.
     
  23. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    No worries! Hope everything’s okay on your end. Part of me almost wants to let kyonna live to try and get that WIFOM in there since he seems more skeptical that we’re town but that could just backfire. I’ve teased out a little of the potential SkyChugg read but I’m acting like a huge majority of it isn’t done so we can use it tomorrow.
     
  24. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Yeah I'd rather go vs Chuggs like we said before. I could see Donna turning on us and Kyan is too much of a wild card for me.
     
  25. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Yeah, I think it’s the play. Sucks they’re so turbo-averse.
     
  26. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Right? I want to get this done and won if we can pull it off lol
     
  27. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Also Stu, whenever you see this, I love you for defending us with such fervor. Almost makes me sad that I'm gonna have to end you >:)
     
  28. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Probably going to come down to who kyonna want to boot out if Monkey lands on Chugg. Nervous she’s going to end up coming afternoon us. We’ll see.
     
  29. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    One other path we can take: SkyChugg today then NK Dr. Stu. Kyonna and FEP are against each other currently and we just need one to break
     
  30. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Hey - I think we should seriously consider killing Dr. Stu tonight. Monkey is way, way too paranoid and is going to be far harder to convince at this rate.
     
  31. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Going to go ahead and bet all the money that Monkey is suddenly going to come up with a reason to scumread us over SkyChugg.
     
  32. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Maybe that’s just my paranoia over the post I made in the wrong thread, but that’s what my gut is telling me is about to happen.
     
  33. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Look at her seeding her conclusion before she even does the work. “Don’t think FEP is scum so Naterra or SkyChugg. Don’t think messenger is as likely to be scum so Naterra or FEP.” You just know that’s there to build up to us being scum lol
     
  34. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Nope definitely not just paranoia. That was a concern I had as well. Though it's a gamble either way at this point. Monkey could either be hard for us or hard against us depending on how she feels after tonight's flip, and there's no discernible way to predict which she will flip.
     
  35. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  36. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Just feel like we're better off rolling the dice with kyonna either way at this point. Just not worth the risk. If they get us then so be it, but Dr. Monkey is clearly leaning towards siding against us. She's not said one positive thing in our favor, but she keeps hedging against SkyChugg. I'm debating unleashing the SkyChugg read and trying to push that through now so we can NK Monkey, but I'm holding off until we see if she really starts digging in against us.
     
  37. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    She's winding up something, so yeah it's better to hold off on doing too much for now.
     
  38. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Dang sucks that we got so far only to (potentially) fall. I think Monkey may be influencing Donna to go against us which wouldn't bode well if we leave kyonna in our final three. I can see Kyan working with us against SkyChuggs, but we're going to need 4 tomorrow to secure a dub.
     
  39. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Yeah, we may be hosed either way ultimately. I’d still take our chances with kyonna over Dr. Stu.
     
  40. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    If only we’d had a full team and could’ve eliminated SkyChugg earlier on. If only.
     
  41. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    It’s coming lol
     
  42. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Gasp she’s about to scum read us without ever actually talking about us. Let me pretend to be shocked.
     
  43. Terraforce

    Terraforce Member

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    Well this is a turn. And of course kyan gets modkilled after I say I trusted him siding with us over Donna. RIP. See you in a bit
     
  44. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    Yo seriously fuck this game for Bear allowing Donna to double. I'm done. What complete and utter garbage. I don't even care about trying to temper my irritation anymore, that's bullshit 100000% what the fuck.
     
  45. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    If it wasn't for you Terra I'd honestly just drop. This game doesn't even deserve my time anymore.
     
  46. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    We got fucked over due to some weird stipulation about when to allow a single person boat to double, but town? Nah, they cool they can do whatever fuck it. I'm super glad we get to struggle through this garbage.
     
  47. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    I threw out the SkyChugg shit since I already had it all gathered up. I'm done after that though, I'm not putting in a ton of work. They can lynch us and this shit game can end.
     
  48. Natiko

    Natiko Administrator

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    I'm just going to self hammer the moment I can. Monkey was clearly working backwards from the conclusion we were scum the entire time so this is what I expected. Probably going to be the last game I play here for a long time. Sorry for torpedoing us Terra. GG scum friends.
     
  49. Brazil

    Brazil Well-Known Member

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    Heh
     
  50. CoolestSpot

    CoolestSpot Member

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    Nat you were the scum MVP.

    We lost for every reason but you, and sorry you didn't have fun playing this game.
     
  51. CoolestSpot

    CoolestSpot Member

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    Don't worry Brazil I was always gunning for you
     
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