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Discussion in 'One Night Ultimate Werewolf XV' started by Fireblend, Aug 10, 2019.
Probably tomorrow since if it was 24 it would've ended 30 mins ago.
whew. Will be home soon and will get caught up.
mind meld. That is why I switched. I expected card 1 not to get picked then realised it was better to see a card that moved.
Tomorrow, sorry, I thought I mentioned before the game began. I'll post a countdown here:
I wouldn't say he was for sure lying. He might have read the thread first and just been riffing off that. I don't want to make assumptions there because we have VERY limited information.
With regard to these, I have to side with Geno. It IS awful play because it would pit minion v wolf and that's not a good scenario. One of you is good and one not-good, unless one is bad and one a tanner, that much is clear, but you are not both running team wolf. Unless - outlier chance - the whole "Geno is bad but I'm voting turmoil" is some sort of very weird longcon and it's a wolf setup to make us think Faddy is the tanner and Geno is town. If so, bravo, well played. But I think that's... a wildly outside chance.
I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s lying because I know he can’t have started with the Insomniac role and he would not have been alerted to his role changing to it.
I'm still thinking Faddy is the best option. As was noted plenty of times earlier, he was basically just howling this morning after Nat told us he actually targeted Dubs and not Chugg.
Still thinking Turmoil is just a Tanner posting wolf pictures and trying to get lunched.
The other option I suppose is Dubs or Faddy being the Tanner, meaning that Turmoil could be a Wolf here, but I'm doubting that. I can't imagine what I would try to do as a Tanner, but making sure that I'm thought of as a lying Wolf is probably always step 1 to the win condition, right?
Then there's the world where Faddy is actually the Seer and Geno is lying, which I mean, ok, I'll just blame Faddy's awful claim if we're actually in that world, because I don't know how we're expected to think Geno is more likely to be lying to us here than him lol.
That's about where I'm at. I think the only thing that could change this for me would be some sort of unexpected nonsense coming up, or someone seeing something that I have completely missed I suppose.
Also I gotta say, I think I do prefer saying Wolf and Wolves instead of Scum now, it's a fun word lol.
I guess if you are going to scape goat me then there isn't much I can do.
Sorry for messing up my claim and losing the game.
I mean, what do you expect of me here?
Faddy: "I'm the Seer, I targeted Card 1."
Natiko: "Nah, I'm the Witch, I did, you're lying."
Geno: "Yeah, I'm the Seer, you're lying."
Faddy: "No, you're both lying!"
Monkey: "Natiko's not."
Faddy: "Well then I targeted Card 3, oops my bad!"
Come on man lol. What am I supposed to believe here?
You're missing "Fanto, Monkey, and Nat are all lying"
Really wish Dubs would say what he was when he started out, but I'm thinking Faddy is the best bet at this point. We just have to hope he's not a tanner
More like BUT WHAT IF THEY WERE I MEAN THEY AREN’T (UNLESS SOMEONE BELIEVES ME THEN THEY COULD BE)
sorry for playing the game
Come on, Faddy, you knew your whole “I don’t believe it but what IF” was gonna get called out. You’re better than that.
I wonder if B-Dubs is just ghosting us on purpose now.
But we’re all just spinning wheels until Dubs comes back. It’s frustrating because who knows if he’s just absent or what.
Am I Tanner yet
Feels bad if you lost the game because of the swap.
Zzz I get the feeling Dubs ain't gonna answer.
BDubs pulling a me.
If this is a strategy, frankly it's a shitty one. It makes me more willing to vote Faddy, though, I'll say that.
Well we win either way so Dubs can do whatever he wants.
I guess it comes down to looking between Faddy and turmoil to see figure out which is likely to be the tanner. I have to run some errands but then I think I'll just do a whole reread.
Kind of makes me just want to vote Dr. Worm regardless. If B-Dubs had been Tanner I would think he'd have been more likely to show up and speak or cause more chaos (kind of like Faddy..). I just can't shake this nagging feeling that we're falling right for Faddy's trap. Maybe that's his plan though, openly wolf as an actual wolf. Ugh.
@B-dubs You a chump
Look Geno (and to some extent Monkey) know that Dubs is a wolf but they continue to want to push on me.
Personally Geno I think you may be getting screwed over. I think monkey definitely robbed a bad guy. Probably Geno since she is so aggressive on me. Get the person who is completely opposed to Geno lynched and win.
This makes sense why she didn't want to reveal her role use but used it to actively discredit me, despite not knowing I had just made a mistake.
I'm a fan of the theory that states that a scum B-Dubs would've claimed Revealer with a red check on Faddy and therefore his Insomniac claim probably holds up
Don't ask me why I like this one better
There is no trap. I was just a dumbass who thought you were lying because I thought you had the card wrong and you failed to say who you gave it to.
We are both town dude.
What is this garbage.
There is no way Dubs ever had the Insomniac card at the start of the game. Nat saw it in the middle.
I don't think Faddy is tricking us Nat, do you think of anything a jester Dubs could've said now that helped him win? I struggle to think of something. He's screwed.
Why are you sure dubs is the jester?
Your theory still wouldn't hold up. If the above was the truth, then she would still not be a Wolf due to Chuggs.
Claiming Troublemaker or Revealer seem like a better way to get himself voted out. Or like..posting at all would have helped. If he was Tanner then I don't think he would have as much incentive to stay quiet.
Good morning, friends.
I've had a paranoid thought that Faddy could be a Tanner here, but my god he would be doing so good I wouldn't even feel bad about it if he was lol.
I still think my vote goes to Faddy here though, he's just throwing out desperate theories now. If he's the Tanner, shit, well done, here's your Oscar nomination, but I think he's just a Wolf.
The problem for Monkey is that she doesn't know if Chuggs is a bad guy or not.
If she was sure Chuggs was actually legit then it is Fantomas who now has the minion card. But if Chuggs is just a wolf who waited to make his claim and Troubemaker is in the middle then Monkey is still on the wolf team.
I'm not, I think turmoil is the jester, Dubs is probably town, Apoph is the second wolf and you are the first.
You better be hoping you are the minion now.
What do you think of monkey btw? She is being very evasive in the game and not really solving what seems to be a simple game.
Then why did Dubs lie?
Dubs was a wolf, he would have to lie about something either way.
This is Geno's claim falling apart btw. By claiming to see the minion card in the middle he is trying to cover his tracks but he no longer has enough bad guy cards to cover the number of lies in the game.
So you are still believing Natiko's obvious lie. Nat you should actually clear up your gambit before the game ends.
? My claim is not falling apart at all. Also I don't think Natiko is lying.
If Faddy is Jester then I blame Turmoil and Dubs for the dumb play.
You know this isn't true.
Insomniac is probably the best role to ghost with in this setup outside of Revealer since it has no information about other roles
Wolves, Minion, and Tanner need to put in effort to win
It is, the way they played they basically threw the game.
I think these games are weird tbh (still having fun though), and puzzling together stuff like this hasn't given me much to talk about either, so I don't blame her.
So, your argument here is that Monkey robbed someone other than Nat, someone who was anti-Town, and then Chugg swapped her with me, giving me that anti-Town role? Ok, that's not that convoluted I guess, but I doubt it when I compare it to the other theories where Monkey is telling the truth.
To me it really comes down to believing Geno over you, and since I do, there is very little that you can do to get me to believe you instead. Your claim involved a major lie and you didn't even try to pass it off as a gambit or push back against Geno's counter claim all that much, that's pretty suspect.
If Monkey stole the Minion card why in the world would she do absolutely nothing to gain heat? It does her no good to disparage others when she can't be sure who is actually a Wolf.
My only gambit was naming Chugg early on. This day will end and B-Dubs will still be the Insomniac.
Here is what I think the game state is
Masons: Malus and Lone Prodigiy
Apprentice Seer: Faddy (card 3 Revealer)
PI: Fantomas (investigated Dr. Worm and Dr. Monkey)
Witch: Natiko (Card 1 swapped with Chuggs, despite his claim of B-Dubs)
Wolf: Dr Worm
Potentially Monkey is on the bad guy team because I don't believe she is properly solving and seems more confused than she should be. I think there is big potential she robbed Geno.
All she knows is Geno was the minion, therefore she knows I am telling the truth. Getting town Faddy lynched wins her the game.
That is if Chuggs isn't a wolf.
She has been pretty hesitant to push on me. Because she doesn't know if the switch is real.
If Faddy is a Wolf why would he push for Turmoil to be voted out? Turmoil HAS to be either another Wolf or a Tanner in this scenario - neither of which leads to a win for Faddy. I think Faddy's just a Tanner.
Or you know. I'm town.
So you're saying I wouldn't want to vote for you regardless, which is fine because I'm advocating we not vote you.
Everyone is lying/potentially a bad guy. Except Faddy, of course.
I'm hesitant to push on you, except:
I revealed who I robbed in the middle of your first ploy because I knew you were full of shit.
keep fucking that chicken, Faddy
Here's the main thing I want answered (aside from @B-dubs ever showing up and answering):
Who does everyone think the Tanner is? We seem to be settled on the same pool of suspects for wolves (excluding Faddy's theories), but we need to really weed out which we think is the Tanner.
That happened after Geno counter claimed me.
The easy answer for me is that Turmoil is the Tanner. He comes out right away with the "I'm the Insomniac, no change" claim. It was immediately countered, and since then he's been posting pictures of wolves. In my mind, he wanted to be countered and didn't want to defend himself at all from any accusations of him lying, but unfortunately there were bigger lies afoot.
Dubs is possible just because we haven't heard back from him, and his claim was obviously also bullshit. The way Faddy was trying to signal to him yesterday though really made me think those two were the original Wolves.
Faddy would be putting on a hell of a performance as the Tanner. I really think his original claim was a Wolfy claim though, he probably wanted to try pushing against the real Seer, but with the chain of me checking Monkey's role and her claiming to target you, it fell apart for him, and he was basically caught with his pants down.
The only other worlds are ones where Faddy is telling the truth, which means Geno is lying, which means the Minion could still be in play somewhere, which changes the game state a lot, but I don't see that as being anywhere near as likely as the worlds where Faddy is lying.
If it's Dubs and Turmoil for the original Wolves, then why would Dubs come and claim the same thing that Turmoil claimed? That makes no sense to me, at least claim something different than your partner.
If it's Turmoil and Faddy for original wolves, I could buy that at least, but I still vote Faddy there I think.
That's a good point, Dubs and Turmoil would be an odd pairing for the wolves with their claims in mind. Dubs claiming Insomniac could have been an attempt to grant more credibility to Faddy (in a poorly executed way due to his complete ghosting).
I keep going back to this post because there's two ways to read it. In the world that Faddy is telling the truth and it's just a weird game for him, this is a crumb. But I don't think it is. The way I read it is a fake crumb - with no reveal at start, odds are revealer is in the middle and not that a wolf actually got hit. So I think this is Faddy seeding his fake claim. Whether that's as wolf or tanner, I can't say.
What changed for you? I haven't finished my re-read so maybe you already posted; if so, just remind me.
@Fantomas i'm town here. Look I don't think it is out of the question to think Turmoil and Dubs are together as wolves. Just because they made the same bad claim doesn't mean anything. Dubs is keeping quiet so why not just lolcat his role claim. we already knew he was a bad guy. It is slightly more than LP did as wolf in the last game.
I think this is a telling post.
I think Geno is frustrated with his partners basically going AFK for the whole game.
I don't think Dubs is the tanner.
But in the midst of you accusing Natiko, which is what I was referencing. That was wrong, and I knew it because I robbed Natiko.
Or you robbed Geno and wanted to say I was scum.
Let's not forget Faddy's list of people he had as lock town before he decided it might be more fruitful to shade them all.
Why were you on such a crusade to make sure B-Dubs knew he didn't have to say anything to Natiko's claim? Dubs comes and checks the thread, regardless of your relationship to him, and sees your post literally agreeing with my assertion that you are telling him to keep his mouth shut lol. If you're Town, why don't you want B-Dubs to tell us his real role? Whatever he says, that's good news for us regardless of whether or not Natiko was gambiting with his altered claim. It could only be beneficial to an anti-Town player to tell B-Dubs to stay quiet there.
Of course you aren't going to admit it. And for me it doesn't completely matter because I don't think Geno was a wolf to start with.
I still think Turmoil is the obvious wolf here.
So, FYI, I'm just going to ignore your routine now, because while entertaining, it's absolutely meant to muddy the waters.
Whatever you are, Faddy, good job. To a point.
I don't think he would tell us his real role and I think Natiko opened up a real possibility of town getting screwed. FWIW I still think Natiko is lying and I thought it seemed obvious. He will tell us at the last minute that he gave the card to chuggs.
So the pool is:
turmoil, Dubs, possibly Dr. Worm as a result of his starting role, and Faddy, yes?
Question marks around Geno and Chuggs because there's no confirmation there, though I am inclined to believe both.
The primary change is the feeling that Faddy is making it all too easy to vote him. I would really feel more comfortable voting Dr. Worm as B-Dubs play seems like the least likely to be a Tanner of the three in my mind. I'll admit though this could be Wolf Faddy's plan - to seem too wild and zany to be a Wolf here.
I swear on my mother's life there is no additional swerve coming. You'll all see that soon enough though.
That is absolutely possible for Faddy and I think it's probably most likely. Faddy is good enough to open wolf like that and play the meta. But out of sheer stubborn foot-dragging-ness, just in case he's the tanner, I don't want to give him the win.
turmoil is slightly more likely the tanner here is my guess, though, in line with what others have posted.
Yeah, if Faddy is the Tanner he's doing quite well since the other suspects are basically just ghosts and not really pushing for anyone else, so he's clearly doing a good job of making himself the obvious vote, but then the WIFOM comes into play.
I'll probably just echo what Monkey said:
Come on man chill, no need to swear on anyone's life.
Turmoil is wolf softing Tanner, Dubs was Tanner and left to seem scummy, making me Tanner
No need to chill when I know I'll be following through on the swear. No fear in my heart.
Exactly what a Wolf would say
Minion would be the easiest role for me to play here but I'm probably not that lucky
If you're the Minion now this game state is so fucked lol Geno would be a wolf, Faddy a Tanner..? or bad village, and I guess Turmoil the other Wolf.
translation: "don't vote for me since I probably ended up a wolf"
Wolf softing tanner is an interesting observation, but poor ApoWorm is seeming like a likely bet due to circumstance. Not your fault, man. Except the drinking, I guess. Get help, dude!
So just to make sure I'm clear - I'm dealing with some stuff here (my dog suddenly has fleas, thanks, Indiana summer) and my reread is spotty and frequently interrupted - we have narrowed it down to Dubs starting as a meanie (hi, Kyan) but is no longer? There was a set of posts I was looking for but didn't see them but since we don't have any sort of clarification from absent Dubs I wanted to ask the room.
is that really much more fucked than any other plausible gamestate
like everything else being equal if all we're going on is "B-Dubs lied" lynching me gives town a 50/50 shot
which is okay, but not great
Yes, B-Dubs started as a non-Village role and now Dr. Worm is stuck with it. We're mainly down to Faddy, Dr. Worm, or Turmoil with Turmoil seeming like the least likeliest to get voted out of the three.
I think we're actually looking at a 66% chance to be right on any of our choices. Three choices, two of which are more likely than not wolves.
Yeah, that's pretty much where I'm at. I still think Faddy is the best bet for a Wolf lunch though. Turmoil and B-Dubs is where I see more Tanner potential, but even then, I think the connections between Faddy and Dubs are pretty strong, so that's my take for original Wolves still, meaning it's now Faddy and Worm.
I think I still vote Faddy here though, but we've got a few hours left to talk here still.
Turmoil is a wolf, Faddy is hapless town
Fanto confirmed me at the start of the game, my raw mafia is kicking in
Raw mafia instinct, but I'm probably mafia too
Should we just vote Apoph then? Since Dubs isn't showing clearly on purpose.
this post is from a wolf who, knowing that his other friendly wolf is softing tanner, faked having not seen a Minion - then, when B-Dubs appeared to be tanning, he realized that B-Dubs was the Minion, and wants to lynch me to win the game
「R A W M A F I A I N S T I N C T」™
it's a shame the Tanner doesn't seem to be in play for the second game in a row - Faddy is hapless town, Turmoil is a wolf, and of course it couldn't've been B-Dubs, but what can you do?
You think Geno is a wolf? Maybe. I hope B-Dubs comes in here and just outs Geno because I am tired of his nonsense this full game.
Maybe Fantomas is right and Turmoil is the tanner.
That's kind of where I'm leaning, but I know others are wanting Faddy.
Lol ok wolfo.
i'm cool voting for Dr. Worm.
imagine you rolled wolf for the second game in a row. First round, you picked a fakeclaim that was hard to dispute and slipped through mostly unnoticed. No Tanner, no counterclaim, works pretty well. I mean, he still lost, but it was close
so second game, that ploy probably won't work as well - cards are mostly the same, but the deck's been reshuffled. How do you undercover as wolf? pull the exact same claim out of your ass and pass as Tanner, because what kind of wolf would try the same trick twice? Tanner needs to be lynched to win, so picking a role that's hard to counterclaim doesn't work too well to draw attention to yourself. you'll notice Turmoil claimed early this game - that's because he wants to get ahead of incoming counterclaims if they exist, whereas a Tanner would intentionally show up late (like someone else in this game) because that's scummier
y'all won't argue with me because you know I'm right
town delenda est