Masons aren't in play I don't think, no way HP comes in hot early D2 with a fake cop check, any other cop that would be out there would have been immediately suspicious.
I think it's a really bad idea to keep a green check alive at melo, especially one as active as Sneeks. We have a good shot at winning this together, we don't need to go down last three scenarios yet. We kill Sneeks and that thread is dead tomorrow except for us. EC sounds defeated, feps is not super active, Stan has good thoughts but not super active, HP has been checked out. There is a very viable path out there and we need to be careful about not overthinking it.
Sorry I'm bouncing different speculation around, not trying to complicate things.
I don't think the mason / cop angle is the most likely. I think most likely EC might have a PR.
Regarding keeping a green check at MELO, both Sneeks and feps are essentially green checked.
I see it going like:
Kill feps
<mass claim, discussion, no kill>
Kill Sneeks
final 5, get Stan or EC up as the vote (only need to convince one of HP/Stan/EC)
So Sneeks won't make it to MeLo either way.
Where we differ:
feps was deflated today, but his reads and vote analysis are on the money. the malus flip might be just what he needs to make a convincing case on his. He was also the only one to pick up my claim breadcrumb and might interrogate there. He will likely look at both of us if he shows up.
Sneeks will be starting to get confirmed town fatigue. Her case and my case was dependent on Hedin/malus, with that out the window she will be considering pairs of (Stan/Hedin/malus), same as me. She is leaning Stan right now, but will likely take the time to go through things thoroughly. She'll be active but it might just amplify anti-Stan and EC noise (malus would have been harder to get today without her)
I think we could win tomorrow with Sneeks if they don't go for a no kill, less sure on feps. If they no kill, both will be dead but feps first means your block is free, Sneeks limits your block to feps and then a blocker on you becomes a problem for us if we miss our kill tonight.
The only world where we miss a kill on feps tonight is if a blocker goes on me for some reason.